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Title page 1

Contents 5

Acknowledgements 2

Executive summary 6

Recommendations 7

1. Humid heatwaves: escalating extremes and historical impacts 9

Heat stress and lethal humidity 9

Chicago, 1995 11

India and Pakistan, 2015 12

Brazil, 2023 13

Some common themes across these humid heatwaves 14

2. A new climate era: the escalating context for humid heatwaves 17

We have already entered a new climate era 17

There is no avoiding significant additional warming and severe human impacts 17

The pace of change is accelerating 17

Community resilience is eroding as climate hazards, once rare, become more frequent 18

Climate impacts are triggered by the combination of both slow-onset and rapid-onset hazards 18

Climate change is an intensifying systemic crisis that touches every sector, every society, everywhere, all at once 18

Humid heatwaves and climate change 18

Cascading impacts of humid heatwaves 22

Humid heatwave interactions with other climate-driven hazards 22

3. Indonesia: rising humid-heat and compound climate risks 25

Compound hazards and cascading impacts in Indonesia 27

Other climate-amplified hazards 27

Indonesia's power sector 29

Agriculture 30

Population displacement 32

4. From evidence to action: policy and research priorities for responding to lethal humidity 34

Appendix: Heatwaves and humid heat: definitions, mechanisms, human limits and meteorological processes 38

Notes 43

Figures 10

Figure 1. Observed global extreme humid heat 10

Figure 2. Seasonal characteristics of heat extremes for the recent historical period (1995 to 2014) 15

Figure 3. Spatial patterns of changes for frequency of dry-heat (a, c) and humid-heat (b, d) extremes in the mid-term future period (2041-2060)... 19

Figure 4. Projected impacts 20

Figure 5. Annual hot-hours under (A) 1.5, (B) 2, (C) 3, and (D) 4 °C of warming relative to preindustrial level, (E) population projection in 2050... 20

Figure 6. Present and future urban population exposure to high humid-heat stress 21

Figure 7. Projected changes in the characteristics of concurrent heatwaves and extreme sea levels 23

Figure 8. Exposure to change in number of heatwave days per year relative to the reference period 25

Figure 9. Annual increase in humid-hot days (WBGT 〉30°C), 1983 to 2016 26

Figure 10. Mean humid-heat frequency anomalies during El Niño events 26

Figure 11. Average relative sea-level rise rate for 23 coastal regions 28

Figure 12. Ecosystem services: Relation to environmental change and impacts on mobility 32

Figure 13. New Tw survivability limits for younger and older adults under shaded/indoor or sun-exposed conditions 40

Figure 14. Humid heatwaves over land in the global tropics and subtropics, and the seasonality of rainfall and humid heatwaves 42

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