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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 3

2. Model 7

2.1. Households 7

2.2. Monetary Policy 8

2.3. Fiscal Policy 8

2.4. Final Good Producer 9

2.5. Monopolistically Competitive Firms 10

2.5.1. Information, Timing, and Rational Inattention 10

3. Analytical Results 15

3.1. Environment 15

3.2. Optimal Information Acquisition 16

4. Empirical Analysis 22

4.1. Data 22

4.2. Specification and identification 23

4.3. Baseline result 23

4.4. Robustness 24

5. Quantitative Results 25

5.1. Fiscal adjustment and inflation volatility 31

5.2. The role of uncertainty and attention transition dynamics 31

6. Conclusion 34

References 34

Appendix 39

A. Optimality Conditions 39

B. Log-Linearization 41

C. Solving the Dynamic Rational Inattention Block 42

D. Non-Stochastic Steady State 54

E. Second-Order Approximation of the Profit Function 55

F. Identification: Derivations and DRS Extension 58

G. Model-Implied Expected Passthrough 61

H. Equivalent Implementation with Payroll and Profit Taxes 61

I. The Role of the Public Signal in Firms' Continuation Value of Information Acquisition 64

J. Empirical Robustness 65

Tables 24

Table 1. Baseline regression 24

Table 2. Robustness battery: summary across 40 specifications 66

Table 3. Leave-one-country-out specifications 67

Table 4. Estimator variations 68

Table 5. Country-specific passthrough 68

Table 6. Robustness: firms' inflation expectations 70

Table 7. Robustness: heterogeneous passthrough and macroeconomic conditions 71

Table 8. D.2 Taxes/GDP interaction 72

Figures 20

Figure 1. Attention and the debt-to-GDP ratio 20

Figure 2. Attention and inflation volatility 27

Figure 3. Inflation variance decomposition 28

Figure 4. Posterior belief decomposition 29

Figure 5. Inflation response to aggregate shocks 30

Figure 6. Inflation volatility and the stance of fiscal policy 32

Figure 7. Fiscal shocks in times of high uncertainty 33

Figure 8. Attention dynamics 33

Figure 9. Model-implied expected passthrough 61

Figure 10. Attention and inflation volatility with naive firms 65

Figure 11. Debt-to-GDP and Taxes/GDP 72

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