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Title page 1

Contents 5

Executive Summary 7

I. Why Europe Is Behind in Space and Why the Window Is Closing 9

The Problem: Despite the Strategic Importance, Europe Is Behind 9

The Urgency: The Europe-U.S. Capabilities Gap Is Widening 14

What the European Commission Should Deliver by 2030 17

II. What Europe Has Already Done in Space, and Why It Falls Short 18

Military Space Commands, the SAFE Instrument, and the EU Space Act 18

Galileo, Copernicus, and IRIS on the Civilian Side 18

Isar Aerospace, ICEYE, and Europe's Emerging Private Space Sector 19

Why Record Space Budgets Do Not Close the Gap with the U.S. 19

III. Lessons from Ukraine, Russian Gray-Zone Attacks, and Airbus 20

In Ukraine, Commercial Satellites Became Military Infrastructure 20

Jamming and Spoofing Have Become Routine 20

The Airbus Playbook for European Space 21

IV. Five Recommendations for European Space Policy 21

1. Space-RIN-EU, a European DARPA for Space 22

2. A €10-Billion Late-Stage Fund and Fixed-Price Procurement 22

3. A Culture Shift Toward More Civilian Focus and Failure Acceptance 23

4. Annual Public Robustness Tests of Europe's Space Dependencies 25

5. Binding Technical Interoperability Standards 26

The Politics of Implementation 26

V. Conclusion 28

Endnotes 29

Figures 10

Figure 1. Three pillars (defense capabilities, economic opportunity, and sovereign autonomy) define the strategic dimension of space for Europe 10

Figure 2. Government space expenditure 2023-2025 in USD billion: United States 73.0, 80.0, and 77.1; China 14.0, 17.6, and 20.6;... 11

Figure 3. Active satellites in Earth orbit rose from about 5,000 at the end of 2021 to about 16,000 by July 2026. This report projects about... 12

Figure 4. Private space venture funding 2023-2025 in EUR billion: United States ~4.0, ~3.4, and ~8.0; Europe ~0.9, ~1.5, and ~1.4,... 13

Figure 5. The U.S.-Europe space gap in 2025: 5 times higher U.S. government space spending (vs. EU, member states, and ESA),... 14

Figure 6. Successful orbital launches in 2021, 2023, and 2025: United States 43, 104, and 179; China 53, 66, and 91; Russia 16, 19, and... 15

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