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Title page 1

Contents 8

Abstract 3

Acknowledgements, contributors and credits 6

Executive Summary 10

Introduction 15

1. Status of nuclear energy 16

Highlights 16

Current role of nuclear energy 17

Nuclear energy is the second-largest low-emissions source of electricity worldwide 17

Nuclear has long been an important source of heat in several countries too 19

Nuclear fleets are oldest in the advanced economies 21

Recent market developments 22

Technological leadership has shifted towards China and Russia 22

Nuclear power plants are taking longer to build in the advanced economies 24

Nuclear investment has been rising in recent years 26

Drivers of renewed interest in nuclear energy 27

Policy support for nuclear energy is strengthening in many countries 28

Nuclear technology development is accelerating and could reshape nuclear market leadership 32

Data centres are emerging as a new dedicated market for nuclear power 39

Opportunities for restarting nuclear plants 42

2. Outlook for nuclear investment 45

Highlights 45

Global outlook 46

Government policy will play a critical role in the future of nuclear energy 46

A growing share of investment is set to go to SMRs 49

Regional outlook 50

China is set to account for the bulk of the growth in global nuclear capacity to 2050 50

A major increase in investment is needed in the coming decade 51

Cutting construction and financing costs is key to making nuclear competitive with other dispatchable options 54

Nuclear market leadership could shift back towards advanced economies 58

Prospects for SMRs 60

Successful SMR development could open up a huge market 60

Several countries are planning to deploy SMRs, led by the United States and China 61

Faster cost reductions could unlock additional SMR deployment 63

Supply chains and workforce requirements 64

The next era of nuclear energy calls for efficient and diversified supply chains 64

Planning for workforce challenges in advance is necessary to avoid bottlenecks 68

Ensuring the safe operation of nuclear reactors is paramount 68

Decommissioning and waste are key considerations 69

3. Financing nuclear projects 71

Highlights 71

Distinctive factors in nuclear financing 72

The cash flow profile of nuclear plants requires a tailored approach to financing 72

Construction risk remains a major hurdle to financing 73

Special treatment of backfitting and accident risk is often required 74

The cost of capital is of particular importance for the financial viability of nuclear investments 76

Who invests in nuclear? How is it financed? 77

State-owned enterprises dominate the nuclear industry today 78

New reactors are generally financed by a mix of debt and equity, while lifetime extensions are debt-financed 80

Public equity and commercial debt are the main sources of finance 81

Private financial institutions hold a generally favourable view of nuclear financing 83

Unlocking more finance for nuclear energy 85

Business models to de-risk nuclear investments can vary depending on country profile and preference 85

Boosting private financing will be critical 88

Greater reliance on equity financing could push up the cost of capital in the near term 91

MDBs could help with financing nuclear energy, but only on a small scale 93

Green bonds and transition finance instruments are expanding 95

SMRs could open the door to greater private sector participation 97

Abbreviations and acronyms 99

Tables 29

Table 1.1. Recent decisions on lifetime extensions of existing reactors by country, 2019-2024 29

Table 1.2. Recent policy decisions and nuclear energy developments in selected countries 30

Table 1.3. Leading SMR companies plan and technology 35

Table 1.4. Status of Japan's nuclear reactors 43

Table 2.1. Installed nuclear capacity by region/country, scenario and type 52

Table 3.1. Responsibility for back-end nuclear costs and funding mechanisms in selected countries 75

Table 3.2. Comparison of project owner type in nuclear power projects 79

Table 3.3. Business models adopted for selected recent nuclear projects 86

Table 3.4. Debt financing options for nuclear projects 90

Table 3.5. Green and transition bond issuances for nuclear energy 96

Figures 18

Figure 1.1. Global low-emissions electricity generation by source, 2023 18

Figure 1.2. Share of nuclear energy in total electricity generation by country, 2023 19

Figure 1.3. Installed nuclear power capacity by country and age, end-2023 21

Figure 1.4. Nuclear power plant construction starts by national origin of technology, 2017-2024 22

Figure 1.5. Nuclear power capacity under construction by region and national origin of technology, as of December 2024 23

Figure 1.6. Typical development time for selected power plants and electricity grids 24

Figure 1.7. Initial and latest capital cost estimates and construction time for selected recent nuclear projects 26

Figure 1.8. Global nuclear energy investment by type, 2000-2023 27

Figure 1.9. Nuclear CHP applications by temperature ranges and reactor types 38

Figure 1.10. Recent announcements and agreements related to the procurement of nuclear energy for data centres 40

Figure 1.11. Representative daily load curves of data centres and selected clean power sources in winter and summer in France 41

Figure 2.1. Global investment in nuclear energy by scenario and type, 2023-2050 47

Figure 2.2. Cumulative investment in nuclear energy by scenario and type, 2024-2050 48

Figure 2.3. Global nuclear power capacity by scenario and type, 2023-2050 49

Figure 2.4. Capital costs of SMRs in major markets by scenario, 2030-2050 50

Figure 2.5. Nuclear power capacity by scenario and region, 2010-2050 51

Figure 2.6. Investment in nuclear energy by scenario, region and type, 2023-2050 53

Figure 2.7. LCOE and VALCOE of nuclear and other selected technologies in selected regions in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2040 55

Figure 2.8. Nuclear power construction starts by national origin of technology in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2017-2040 58

Figure 2.9. Global SMR cumulative investment and capacity additions in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2025-2050 60

Figure 2.10. SMR installed capacity and number of reactors in selected regions in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2025-2050 61

Figure 2.11. SMR construction costs in major markets and global installed capacity by scenario and case 63

Figure 2.12. Global uranium production from mines, 2016-2030 66

Figure 3.1. Final cost compared to initial cost of recently built nuclear reactors in selected countries and number of nuclear reactor projects... 73

Figure 3.2. Global average WACC for nuclear, solar and wind companies 77

Figure 3.3. Share of investment in nuclear energy by type of company and region, 2023 79

Figure 3.4. Sources of finance for investment in new-build large-scale reactors and lifetime extensions by country/region, in 2023 82

Figure 3.5. Views from financial institutions on nuclear financing 83

Figure 3.6. Average international uranium and nuclear fuel price and variable cost of nuclear power generation and wholesale electricity price... 88

Figure 3.7. Cumulative investments in nuclear energy by source and type of finance and country/region in the Announced Pledges Scenario,... 92

Figure 3.8. Position of multilateral development banks on financing nuclear energy 93

Figure 3.9. Average annual disbursements by MDBs by sector, 2019-2022 94

Figure 3.10. Indicative capital expenditure per project for selected technologies by country/region, 2040 97

Figure 3.11. Indicative cumulative cash flow profile of an SMR power plant assuming cost parity with a conventional large-scale nuclear plant 98

Boxes 38

Box 1.1. Opportunities for nuclear power plants to provide high-temperature heat for hard-to-abate sectors 38

Box 2.1. IEA scenarios 46

Box 2.2. The value-adjusted LCOE as a metric of competitiveness 57

Box 3.1. Understanding how projects are financed and by whom 78

Box 3.2. Electricity pricing and nuclear fuel costs 88

Box 3.3. Demystifying "risk-taking" by financial institutions: The importance of cash flow predictability for debt providers 91

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