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요약문 9

Summary 13

제1장 서론 19

제2장 재해(위험)기상 추적·목표관측체계 운영 및 활용 연구 20

제1절 재해기상 추적·목표관측체계 운영 20

1. 모바일 기상관측 차량 운영 및 환경개선 20

2. 재해기상 목표관측체계 기반 현장관측정보 생산 24

제2절 기상·기후자료를 활용한 재해기상 연구 33

1. 서울지역 예·특보 구역 세분화 가능성 연구 33

2. 우리나라 강풍의 시공간변화 특성 49

3. 강우패턴이 산사태 발생에 미치는 영향 59

제3장 재해기상 메커니즘 분석 및 예측성연구 70

제1절 재해기상 메커니즘 분석 연구 70

1. 서울시 강한강수와 관련된 대기연직구조 분류와 강수특성 70

2. 강원 영동대설(17년 1월) 사례에 대한 대기의 구조적 특성 83

제2절 재해기상 예측성 향상연구 104

1. 강설 예측성 향상을 위한 대기수상체 미세물리 특성 분석 104

2. 기상조건에 따른 강설유형 분류 및 눈 밀도 산출기법 개선 116

제4장 요약 및 결론 124

참고문헌 126

List of Tables

Table 2.1.2.1. Observation date, site and time for the typhoons in 2019. 25

Table 2.1.2.2. Observation for supporting forest fire in Gangwon(Inje, Gangneung, Sokcho, Goseong). 27

Table 2.1.2.3. The number of BBMEX observations and observation time. 29

Table 2.1.2.4. Observation sites and time for heavy snow in Gangwon area. 30

Table 2.1.2.5. 3-D Meteorological Observation Campaign in the Yeongdong area, Gangwon. 31

Table 2.1.2.6. The date and time of the Charyeong Observation Campaign. 32

Table 2.2.1.1. Objective analysis results for calculation of optimal cluster number. 42

Table 2.2.1.2. Average temperature for each cluster of K-means. 43

Table 2.2.1.3. Colony influence Fuzzy Clustering analysis. 44

Table 2.2.3.1. Life damage by natural disaster in recent 10 years. 60

Table 2.2.3.2. Ranking of dangerous landslides in Gangwon-do except military area. 61

Table 2.2.3.3. Severe rain storm cases and status of landslides in Chuncheon-si and Wonju-si. 62

Table 2.2.3.4. Status of rainfall and landslides in Wonju-si and Chuncheon-si in summer from 2010 to 2017. 64

Table 2.2.3.5. Results of logistic regression analysis in Chuncheon-si. 67

Table 2.2.3.6. Results of logistic regression analysis in Wonju-si. 67

Table 3.1.1.1. The mean values of MR and WS from sounding. 79

Table 3.1.1.2. The mean values of sounding parameters by classified atmospheric vertical structures. 81

Table 3.1.1.3. The mean values of rainfall properties by classified atmospheric vertical structures. 82

Table 3.1.2.1. Precipitation amount of the 5 weather stations in the Yeongdong region used in... 90

Table 3.2.1.1. Observational variables and instruments used in this study. 107

Table 3.2.1.2. Summary of the CReSS model setup used in this study. 108

Table 3.2.2.1. Information of observation station between December 2017 and March 2018. 118

List of Figures

Fig. 2.1.1.1. The operational distance between each observation vehicle. 20

Fig. 2.1.1.2. The number of operational days for MOVE1. 21

Fig. 2.1.1.3. The operational distance of MOVE1 per month. 21

Fig. 2.1.1.4. The training workshop for mobile observation vehicle operation. 22

Fig. 2.1.1.5. Cover for protecting vane anemometer. 23

Fig. 2.1.1.6. The picture of installed display system for briefing. 24

Fig. 2.1.2.1. Observation points for typhoon cases. 25

Fig. 2.1.2.2. The observation and data production for typhoon cases. 26

Fig. 2.1.2.3. The pictures of forest fire support(Inje, Gangneung, Sokcho, Goseong). 28

Fig. 2.1.2.4. BBMEX observation path(left) and press interview(right). 29

Fig. 2.1.2.5. The pictures of observations for heavy snow(Hyeonnae, Sokcho, Chuncheon, Haean). 30

Fig. 2.1.2.6. Upper-air observation in Sokcho based on MOVE1 for 3-D Meteorological Observation... 31

Fig. 2.1.2.7. The observation sites and upper air observation for Charyeong Ccampaign in Asan... 32

Fig. 2.2.1.1. The frequency of accidents caused by heavy rain. 34

Fig. 2.2.1.2. Observation points used in the study. 35

Fig. 2.2.1.3. Frequency of cases exceeding the heat wave weather alert criteria. 40

Fig. 2.2.1.4. Frequency of cases exceeding the cold wave weather alert criteria. 40

Fig. 2.2.1.5. Frequency of cases exceeding the heavy rainfall weather alert criteria. 41

Fig. 2.2.1.6. Results of duster analysis based on branch data. 42

Fig. 2.2.1.7. Daily average temperature data interpolated by... 45

Fig. 2.2.1.8. Result of SPOT Analysis. 46

Fig. 2.2.1.9. Results of grouping analysis. 47

Fig. 2.2.2.1. Location of surface observation stations... 51

Fig. 2.2.2.2. Annual frequencies of maximum wind speed and... 52

Fig. 2.2.2.3. Seasonal frequencies of maximum wind speed with its trend 54

Fig. 2.2.2.4. Seasonal frequencies of maximum instantaneous wind speed with its trend 54

Fig. 2.2.2.5. Monthly frequencies of maximum wind(Max. W) speed and maximum... 55

Fig. 2.2.2.6. Hourly frequencies of maximum wind(Max. W) speed and maximum... 56

Fig. 2.2.2.7. Variations of monthly averaged maximum instantaneous wind speed and its trends... 57

Fig. 2.2.3.1. Landslide trend in recent 10 years. 59

Fig. 2.2.3.2. Rainfall patterns in landslide cases 65

Fig. 2.2.3.3. The rainfall pattern when landslides did not occur. 66

Fig. 3.1.1.1. The location of meteorological station in Seoul(red dot)... 72

Fig. 3.1.1.2. Flowchart showing the criteria for identifying the "LG", "TT", and "IV"... 73

Fig. 3.1.1.3. Flowchart showing procedure for calculating Rainfall type Index (RI). 75

Fig. 3.1.1.4. Examples for the interpretation of Rainfall type Index (RI, a... 77

Fig. 3.1.1.5. Mean vertical profiles of mixing ratio (a), wind speed (b), and equivalent potential... 78

Fig. 3.1.1.6. Composited geopotentail height fields (white solid line) of Loaded Gun-type for the... 80

Fig. 3.1.1.7. The same as in Fig. 3.1.1.6, but for Thin Tube-type. 80

Fig. 3.1.1.8. The same as in Fig. 3.1.1.6, but for Inverted V-type. 81

Fig. 3.1.2.1. Qrganization Chart of the International Collaborative Experiments for... 84

Fig. 3.1.2.2. Distribution of (a) daily precipitation(mm) in Korea and time series of (b)... 91

Fig. 3.1.2.3. Surface weather chart for (a) 03 KST, (b) 09 KST, (c) 15 KST, and... 92

Fig. 3.1.2.4. The same as in Fig. 3.1.2.3. except for 850 hPa. 94

Fig. 3.1.2.5. The same as in Fig. 3.1.2.3. except for 500 hPa. 95

Fig. 3.1.2.6. The same as in Fig. 3.1.2.3. except for 300 hPa. 96

Fig. 3.1.2.7. Potential vorticity (color) and wind vector (arrow) on isentropic surface... 98

Fig. 3.1.2.8. East-west vertical cross section of vertical velocity(×10⁻³hPas⁻¹) at (a) 21 KST... 99

Fig. 3.1.2.9. The same as in Fig. 3.1.2.8 except for relative vorticity(×10⁻⁵s⁻¹). The dotted (solid)... 100

Fig. 3.1.2.10. The same as in Fig. 3.1.2.8. except for divergence(×10⁻⁵s⁻¹). The dotted (solid)... 101

Fig. 3.2.1.1. The model domain and topography with... 106

Fig. 3.2.1.2. Comparison of mesoscale model (MSM) fields in the (a, c, e) (CTRL),... 109

Fig. 3.2.1.3. Time series of (a) thermodynamic profiles, (b) snow and... 111

Fig. 3.2.1.4. The same as in Fig. 3.2.1.3a except for CReSS simulations for the (a) CTRL,... 112

Fig. 3.2.1.5. Time series of 3-h accumulated precipitation of rain, graupel, and snow derived... 113

Fig. 3.2.1.6. Vertical profiles of mixing ratio of water vapor... 114

Fig. 3.2.2.1. Observation stations(17 stations) used in the study. 117

Fig. 3.2.2.2. Indicates the rain type(red dot) estimated WW and wet-bulb... 120

Fig. 3.2.2.3. Indicates (a) wet-bulb temperature(blue line) of 28 February, 2018 case of DGW and... 121

Fig. 3.2.2.4. Indicates the spatial distribution of the case on February 28, 2018. Color bar... 122

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