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Title page 1

Contents 6

Foreword 6

Acknowledgements 6

Abbreviations and acronyms 6

Executive summary 6

1. A level playing field is needed for a brighter outlook in the global steel industry 14

Steel is the backbone of developed and developing economies alike 15

Once led by OECD countries, the steel industry has experienced a surge ininvestment in emerging economies 15

Steel producers are facing significant challenges as a result of growing excess capacity 17

Steel excess capacity puts jobs, investments and supply chains at risk 18

Subsidies and other support measures are fuelling excess capacity while distorting competition 18

Trade actions have increased as steel trade flows shift significantly 20

Market imbalances are slowing the industry's decarbonisation efforts 21

Global co-operation is needed for a level playing field in the global steel market 22

References 23

Notes 23

2. Growing global steel excess capacity threatens the viability of the global steel industry 25

The current situation: Global capacity continues to increase rapidly despite weak demand 26

The capacity outlook to 2027: Further pressure on excess capacity 27

Excess capacity is expected to grow further by 2027 30

References 32

3. Steel subsidies fuelling excess capacity 33

Subsidies to steel industries in OECD countries and partner economies 34

Government support measures in selected countries and regions 38

References 43

Notes 47

4. Steel market outlook: Slow growth in the medium term 49

Recent developments 50

Global steel demand and production outlook to 2030 56

References 59

Notes 59

5. International steel trade: Exports surge from excess capacity 61

Steel trade developments 62

Steel trade measures in 2024 65

Looking ahead to 2025 68

References 68

Notes 68

6. Steel decarbonisation efforts challenged by excess capacity 69

Steel decarbonisation trends and challenges 70

The outlook for scrap availability 78

The future landscape of low-emission iron production 80

References 81

Notes 82

Tables 7

Table 2.1. Steelmaking capacity, by largest economy, 2020-24 26

Table 2.2. World steelmaking capacity, by region, 2019-24 27

Table 2.3. Nominal capacity and potential gross capacity additions, by region, 2023-27 28

Table 2.4. Foreign investment in capacity expansion in ASEAN countries 32

Table 3.1. The Egyptian government's intervention on gas prices for the industrial sector in 2019-21 39

Table 4.1. World crude steel demand by region, 2019-23 50

Table 4.2. World crude steel production by region, 2019-24 51

Table 4.3. Steel demand expectations, 2024-30 56

Table 4.4. Steel production expectations by region, 2025-30 58

Table 5.1. Steel exports by region, 2019-24 62

Table 5.2. Steel imports by region, 2019-24 63

Table 5.3. Number of steel antidumping investigations initiated in 2024, by initiating economy 67

Figures 7

Figure 1.1. Steel production in OECD countries, China and the rest of the world, 2005-24 16

Figure 1.2. China's steel production, demand and exports, 2005-24 16

Figure 1.3. Recent (2019-24) and forecasted (2025-27) global steel excess capacity 17

Figure 1.4. Steel subsidisation rates in China, OECD countries and other countries, 2006-22 19

Figure 1.5. Steel export volumes (2024) and growth (2020-24) in selected countries 20

Figure 1.6. Projected steelmaking capacity increase from 2025 onward, by technology and region 22

Figure 2.1. Projected steelmaking capacity increase from 2025 onwards, by technology and region 29

Figure 2.2. Global cross-border investment in crude steelmaking capacity from 2025 onward, by region and source of investment 30

Figure 2.3. Crude steel production as a percentage of capacity, 2019-27 31

Figure 3.1. Typical subsidies to steel firms: A multitude of instruments with different impacts 35

Figure 3.2. Industrial subsidies by sector, 2005-22 36

Figure 3.3. Steel subsidisation as a percentage of total firm revenue, 2006-22 36

Figure 3.4. Steel subsidisation rates in China, OECD countries and other countries, 2006-22 37

Figure 3.5. Steel subsidisation rates by category of state-owned enterprise, 2006-22 38

Figure 4.1. Price indices for flat and long steel categories and their variation, 2021-25 52

Figure 4.2. Prices for key steelmaking raw materials, 2021-25 53

Figure 4.3. Difference between the price of steel and the basket of raw materials, 2021-25 53

Figure 4.4. Steel industry profitability in OECD countries and partner economies, 2005-23 54

Figure 4.5. Steel industry capacity utilisation in OECD countries and partner economies, 2005-23 55

Figure 4.6. Indebtedness of crude steel-producing firms in OECD countries and partner economies, 2005-23 55

Figure 4.7. Recent (2019-24) and forecasted (2025-27) global steel excess capacity 57

Figure 5.1. ASEAN steel exports, 2010-24 63

Figure 5.2. Antidumping and countervailing duties investigations, 2016-24 67

Figure 6.1. Average carbon intensities of various steelmaking production routes 70

Figure 6.2. Scope of emissions covered by the targets set by 26 companies by 2023 72

Figure 6.3. Number of low-carbon steel project announcements, 2020-22 73

Figure 6.4. Number of government policies promoting decarbonisation in the steel industry that are demand-side/phase-in and phase-out and supply-side/phase-in and phase-out 77

Figure 6.5. Steel scrap export measures, number and volume of exports subject to measures, 2022 78

Figure 6.6. Potential global scrap availability in an increased and accelerated recovery scenario 79

Boxes 8

Box 2.1. The Southeast Asian steel industry attracts significant foreign investment 31

Box 3.1. Selected Chinese support measures for innovation and product upgrading 42

Box 5.1. The impact of developments in the Chinese steel industry on world markets 64

Box 5.2. The challenge of steel trade circumvention 66

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