Title page 1

Contents 6

Preface 4

Foreword 5

Reader's guide 9

Executive summary 12

Key facts and figures 13

1. How far are countries from achieving national and global mitigation objectives? 14

1.1. Global GHG emissions reached an all-time high in 2023 14

1.2. Countries are not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs 16

1.3. Current NDCs are misaligned with long-term commitments and net zero 17

1.4. Most countries face climate ambition and implementation challenges 18

1.5. Only 18% of GHG emissions, covered by net-zero targets, are backed by legally binding commitments 21

1.6. GHG emission reduction commitments remain inconsistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals 22

1.7. Fossil fuel reliance in heat production and transportation continues to drive emissions 24

1.8. OECD countries have higher per capita emissions across sectors than OECD partners, except in manufacturing and industry 28

1.9. Economic growth drives emissions in OECD partner countries 29

1.10. GHG emissions are embedded in trade 33

References 35

Notes 36

2. How vulnerable are countries to climate risks? 39

2.1. Climate-related hazards are projected to intensify 39

2.2. Extreme temperatures across and within countries are reaching critical levels 41

2.3. Droughts are deepening risks to agriculture, economies and lives 48

2.4. Extreme precipitation is rising puts crops and communities at risk 50

2.5. Economic losses and mortality from climate-related disasters reveal systemic vulnerabilities 52

References 55

Notes 58

3. How far did countries' climate action progress? 59

3.1. Climate action in 2024 expanded only marginally 59

3.2. Progress in climate action in AFOLU, waste and transport sectors remained modest 64

3.3. Climate action in the transport sector needs to be ramped up 65

3.4. Market-based instruments grew slightly in 2024, but remain less used 71

3.5. Climate action in Latin America and the Caribbean only expanded marginally since 2021 76

References 83

Notes 84

Annex A. Additional figures 86

References 88

Annex B. Data gaps, methodology and limitations 89

Chapter 1 89

Chapter 2 91

Chapter 3 92

References 95

Tables 7

Table 1.1. OECD countries advance in all sectors except transport, OECD partner countries see increases in most sectors 26

Table 3.1. Top drivers of climate action in 2024 62

Figures 7

Figure 1.1. GHG emissions continue to grow in OECD partner countries 15

Figure 1.2. OECD and OECD partner countries are not on track to deliver their 2030 NDCs 16

Figure 1.3. OECD and OECD partner countries' NDCs are not aligned with net zero 17

Figure 1.4. Few countries are on track to achieve their NDCs and most are not aligned with 2050 commitments 19

Figure 1.5. Implied percentage reduction in GHG emissions from 2023 to NDC targets 20

Figure 1.6. Global GHG emissions under a net-zero target law plateau at 17.7% 22

Figure 1.7. Global NDC and net-zero targets fall short of Paris Agreement goals 23

Figure 1.8. Electricity/heat and transportation account for the largest shares of GHG emissions 25

Figure 1.9. Land cover as shown by Earth observation data in Europe 27

Figure 1.10. OECD countries have higher per capita emissions across sectors than OECD partners, except in manufacturing and industrial processes 29

Figure 1.11. Gains in energy efficiency and clean energy surpass growth in OECD countries, but not in OECD partner countries 30

Figure 1.12. GHG emissions intensity remains high in OECD partner countries 32

Figure 1.13. Per capita emissions in many OECD countries exceed the global average 33

Figure 1.14. OECD countries drive GHG emissions in OECD partner countries through their demand for imported goods 34

Figure 2.1. Forward-looking indicators forecast that average temperatures will increase substantially across different climate scenarios 40

Figure 2.2. Most exposed countries to heat stress often have the least resources to adapt 42

Figure 2.3. Heat exposure and vulnerability among elderly populations in Japan 43

Figure 2.4. Despite differences in historical exposure to extreme heat, countries will need to increase resilience 45

Figure 2.5. Rising hot days and tropical nights disproportionately affect some regions and populations 46

Figure 2.6. Brazil could face over 200 hot days annually by the end of the century, under a very high emissions scenario 47

Figure 2.7. Economies based on food exports affected by increased exposure to droughts worldwide 49

Figure 2.8. An increasing amount of forest cover is in areas at risk of wildfires 50

Figure 2.9. Tropical regions face the highest cropland exposure to extreme rainfall 51

Figure 2.10. Economic losses from climate-related natural disasters rose steadily over three decades 53

Figure 2.11. Heat waves drive year-to-year surges in extreme temperature deaths 54

Figure 3.1. Climate action expanded only marginally since 2022 60

Figure 3.2. Divergence of climate action risks undermining global mitigation efforts 63

Figure 3.3. Growth of climate action varies significantly across countries 64

Figure 3.4. AFOLU, waste and transport sectors lag other sectors, underscoring the need for stronger action 65

Figure 3.5. Despite recent action, climate action in the transport sector remains behind other energy sectors 66

Figure 3.6. EV subsidies dominate growth in transport climate action, but overall progress remains uneven 67

Figure 3.7. Bans on ICE passenger cars are rising, but most will become effective from 2035 only 68

Figure 3.8. Stronger climate action is linked to lower transport emissions growth 69

Figure 3.9. Policy mixes are more successful in reducing emissions than stand-alone policies 70

Figure 3.10. Market-based instruments remain less used despite proven effectiveness 71

Figure 3.11. Use of market-based instruments varies significantly across countries 72

Figure 3.12. CORSIA coverage grows, but several key aviation sector emitters do not participate 73

Figure 3.13. Carbon pricing is strongly linked with regulations 75

Figure 3.14. Record levels of low-carbon R&D investment highlight growing policy commitment 76

Figure 3.15. Climate action in LAC countries considerably increased up to 2020 but its pace has diminished since 77

Figure 3.16. Climate action in Central American countries grew strongest until 2021, but has declined since 78

Figure 3.17. Growth of climate action varies significantly across policy instrument types 79

Figure 3.18. Latin American countries' reliance on market-based instruments is very limited 81

Figure 3.19. LAC countries have a diverse set of policies in place in 2024 82

Boxes 8

Box 1.1. NDC 3.0: Raising ambition for 2035 targets 20

Box 1.2. LULUCF: A critical but uncertain component of global emissions 27

Box 1.3. Decomposing changes in emissions using the Kaya Identity 31

Box 1.4. Addressing carbon leakage risks by using interoperable carbon intensity metrics 34

Box 2.1. Vulnerability to extreme heat also varies within populations: The case of Japan 43

Box 2.2. Large swaths of Brazil are projected to face growing impacts of extreme heat under high-emission scenarios 47

Box 2.3. The expanding reach of wildfires: forests and populations at risk 50

Box 2.4. Measuring progress in adapting the agricultural sector to climate risks 52

Box 3.1. The Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework 2025 edition 61

Box 3.2. Effective strategies to reduce transport emissions 70

Box 3.3. Denmark pioneers the world's first carbon tax on agricultural emissions 74

Box 3.4. Carbon Pricing in the Americas (CPA) 80

Annex Tables 90

Table B.1. Detailed estimates of GHG emissions targets for 2030 and 2050 (Gt CO₂e) 90

Annex Figures 86

Figure A.1. Top ten IPAC emitters and emissions from the rest of the world 86

Figure A.2. Successful policy interventions in the transport sector 87

Figure A.3. EV passenger cars sales reached a record-high in 2024 88

Figure B.1. The policy scope of the CAPMF 2025 edition 94