Title page 1

Contents 8

Foreword 4

Acknowledgements 5

Editorial 7

Abbreviations and acronyms 13

Executive Summary 15

1. Motivation, analytical framework and overview of the Environmental Outlook 18

1.1. Introduction 19

1.2. Motivation and overview of the OECD Environmental Outlook 20

1.3. Biophysical interlinkages between environmental challenges 21

1.3.1. Interlinkages between climate change and biodiversity loss 23

1.3.2. Interlinkages between biodiversity loss and pollution 27

1.3.3. Interlinkages between pollution and climate change 31

1.4. High-level recognition of interlinkages in multilateral commitments and policy responses 34

1.5. Past research examining the biophysical and policy interlinkages 36

1.6. Integrated modelling toolbox and analytical framework for the Environmental Outlook 38

1.6.1. Integrated modelling toolbox 38

1.6.2. Analytical framework 39

Annex 1.A. Observed and projected health impacts of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution: Select examples 43

Annex 1.B. Framing of the various drivers of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution in the modelling toolbox 45

Annex 1.C. The ENV-Linkages model 46

Annex 1.D. The IMAGE model framework 49

Annex 1.E. Regional details of the modelling framework 52

References 53

Notes 74

2. Historical and future drivers of the triple planetary crisis 76

2.1. Introduction 77

2.2. Unpacking the drivers of the triple planetary crisis 79

2.2.1. Production and supply of goods and services 81

2.2.2. Composition of demand for goods and services and structural change of the economy 90

2.2.3. Efficiency improvements in production of goods and services 93

2.3. The role of resource use in driving environmental pressures 96

2.3.1. Use of (raw) material resources 97

2.3.2. Water use 98

2.4. A unified outlook on the multifaceted drivers of the triple planetary crisis 100

Annex 2.A. Socioeconomic trends 105

Annex 2.B. Decomposing the evolution of the various drivers 118

Annex 2.C. Increasing drivers affect all aspects of the triple planetary crisis simultaneously: Underlying data 125

References 130

Notes 137

3. The current and future state of the triple planetary crisis 139

3.1. Introduction 140

3.2. Evolution of environmental pressures 140

3.3. Current and projected future state: Climate change 145

3.3.1. Climate-induced temperature changes 145

3.3.2. Climate-induced changes in water systems 147

3.4. Current and projected future state: Biodiversity loss 149

3.4.1. Losses in terrestrial biodiversity 150

3.4.2. Losses in aquatic biodiversity 152

3.4.3. Ecosystem services 153

3.4.4. Decomposing biodiversity loss 155

3.5. Current and projected future state: Pollution 158

3.5.1. Air pollution 158

3.5.2. Chemical pollution 160

3.5.3. Nutrient pollution 162

3.5.4. Plastic pollution 164

3.6. Mutually reinforcing aspects of the triple planetary crisis 165

Annex 3.A. Detailed indicators of environmental pressure 169

Annex 3.B. The economic consequences of climate change 175

References 178

Notes 185

4. The interactions between climate, biodiversity and pollution policy objectives: Conceptual overview 187

4.1. Introduction 188

4.2. Climate policy objectives 189

4.2.1. Energy 189

4.2.2. Food 195

4.2.3. Ecosystems 197

4.2.4. Summary of synergies and trade-offs: Climate policy objectives 200

4.3. Biodiversity policy objectives 201

4.3.1. Protecting biodiversity 201

4.3.2. Managing biodiversity 203

4.3.3. Restoring biodiversity 206

4.3.4. Summary of synergies and trade-offs: Biodiversity objectives 208

4.4. Pollution policy objectives 209

4.4.1. Preventing pollution at source 209

4.4.2. Reducing leakage of pollutants into the environment 211

4.4.3. Remediating pollution 213

4.4.4. Summary of synergies and trade-offs: Pollution policy objectives 214

4.5. Key insights 215

References 217

Notes 236

5. Attention to policy interlinkages between climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution at the national level 239

5.1. Introduction 240

5.2. Methodological approach and scope of the policy stocktake 240

5.2.1. Methodology 240

5.2.2. Scope 241

5.3. Findings of the content analysis of national documents 243

5.3.1. High-level acknowledgement of pairwise and three-way interlinkages 243

5.3.2. BTRs detail climate change-biodiversity interlinkages and policy synergies, with only a few discussing how to manage potential trade-offs 245

5.3.3. BTRs discuss climate change-pollution interlinkages, synergies and trade-offs in less detail 249

5.3.4. NBSAPs discuss biodiversity-climate change interlinkages and synergies, but only a few illustrate how trade-offs are managed 252

5.3.5. NBSAPs discuss biodiversity-pollution interlinkages in a dissimilar way, and illustrate synergies in more detail than trade-offs 257

5.3.6. National documents on pollution are disparate and diverse, but some interlinkages with climate change and biodiversity loss are acknowledged 261

5.4. Key takeaways 264

References 265

Notes 274

6. Deep dives on the management of synergies and trade-offs in the triple planetary crisis 275

6.1. Introduction 276

6.2. Integrating biodiversity and pollution in renewable energy expansion 278

6.2.1. Synergies and trade-offs of renewable energy expansion, biodiversity conservation and pollution control 278

6.2.2. Integrating biodiversity and pollution control in siting of renewable energy infrastructure 284

6.2.3. Additional safeguards to minimise the impacts on biodiversity and pollution 288

6.3. Integrating climate change and pollution in protected area management policies 289

6.3.1. Synergies and trade-offs between protected areas, climate change and pollution 290

6.3.2. Dealing with risks to the synergistic effect of protected areas from negative climate change and pollution impacts 292

6.3.3. Tools and indicators to assess environmental effectiveness of protected areas 298

6.4. Integrating climate change and biodiversity in air pollution control policies 300

6.4.1. Synergies and trade-offs of air pollution control for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation 301

6.4.2. Tools for synergistic air pollution control policies 303

6.4.3. Integrating synergies of different types of air pollution policies with climate change mitigation 305

6.4.4. Integrating synergies of different types of air pollution policies with biodiversity 309

6.5. Integrating climate change and biodiversity in nutrient management policies 312

6.5.1. The nitrogen cascade and phosphorus cycle touch on all pillars of the triple planetary crisis 312

6.5.2. Synergies and trade-offs of nutrient pollution policies for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation 313

6.5.3. Integrating synergies and trade-offs when assessing policies to reduce nutrient pollution 316

6.6. Key takeaways 322

Annex 6.A. Examples of EIAs used for renewable energy projects 325

Annex 6.B. Protected area categorisation 326

Annex 6.C. Policies to support renewables expansion, manage and enhance protected areas, combat air pollution and manage nutrient pollution 328

Annex 6.D. Links among nitrogen, phosphorus and the triple planetary crisis 340

References 345

Notes 375

7. Roadmap for policy action 377

7.1. What this Outlook reveals 378

7.2. Towards a policy roadmap for integrated action 379

7.2.1. Address key gaps in research and assessment 379

7.2.2. Strengthen consideration of interlinkages in national reporting and planning 381

7.2.3. Align financing and public resource allocation 388

7.2.4. Mitigate unintended impacts of the clean energy transition 390

7.2.5. Transform resource use 394

7.2.6. Rethink food systems 399

References 403

Notes 408

Tables 11

Table 1.1. Examples of interlinkages 22

Table 2.1. Meat consumption by world region, 2010-2034 91

Table 3.1. Overview of the indicators used to describe environmental pressures 140

Table 5.1. Characteristics of the countries examined 242

Table 5.2. Submission year of the latest national documents by country 243

Table 5.3. Acknowledgement of pairwise interlinkages and the triple planetary crisis 244

Table 5.4. Climate change and biodiversity interlinkages in BTRs (and NCs) 246

Table 5.5. Examples of implemented policies and projects cited at the climate change-biodiversity interlinkages in BTRs 248

Table 5.6. Climate change and pollution interlinkages in BTRs (and NCs) 250

Table 5.7. Examples of implemented policies and projects cited at the climate change-pollution interlinkages in BTRs 252

Table 5.8. Biodiversity and climate change interlinkages in NBSAPs 253

Table 5.9. Examples of implemented policies and projects cited at the climate change-biodiversity interlinkages in NBSAPs 257

Table 5.10. Biodiversity loss and pollution interlinkages in NBSAPs 258

Table 5.11. Examples of implemented policies and projects cited at the biodiversity-pollution interlinkages in NBSAPs 261

Table 6.1. Select impacts of fossil fuels on pollution and biodiversity throughout the stages 280

Table 7.1. Examples of implemented measures tackling multiple targets in BTRs (and NCs) 383

Table 7.2. Examples of implemented measures tackling multiple targets in NBSAPs 384

Figures 10

Figure 1.1. Illustration of select interlinkages 21

Figure 1.2. Overview of the linkages in the integrated modelling toolbox 39

Figure 1.3. Drivers, pressures, state and impacts 40

Figure 1.4. Overview of policy analysis conducted in the report 42

Figure 2.1. Linking socioeconomic trends, drivers and crosscutting aspects to environmental pressures 78

Figure 2.2. GHG emissions by sector 82

Figure 2.3. Nutrient surpluses in agriculture 83

Figure 2.4. Main drivers of land use change 85

Figure 2.5. Primary energy supply 88

Figure 2.6. Electrification rates of key sectors 92

Figure 2.7. Drivers of changes in area dedicated to cropland (2020-2050) 94

Figure 2.8. Chemical intensity by sector in 2020 96

Figure 2.9. Projections of total materials use 97

Figure 2.10. Regional water withdrawal by sector 99

Figure 2.11. Global map of the evolution of water withdrawal 100

Figure 2.12. Evolution of drivers and socio-economic trends behind environmental pressures 103

Figure 2.13. Regional differences in the evolution of drivers behind environmental pressures 104

Figure 3.1. Evolution of selected environmental pressures 141

Figure 3.2. Regional evolution of selected environmental pressures 144

Figure 3.3. Projected GHG emissions and temperature trajectory under current policies 146

Figure 3.4. Regional average temperatures and projected temperature changes 146

Figure 3.5. Water stress 148

Figure 3.6. Global Mean Species Abundance (MSA): Patterns in 2020 and changes by 2050 150

Figure 3.7. Biodiversity over time through the lens of MSA and LPI 152

Figure 3.8. Decomposing the evolution of global biodiversity loss 156

Figure 3.9. Effects of different pressures on regional terrestrial MSA, in 2020 and 2050 157

Figure 3.10. Population exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particles 159

Figure 3.11. Air pollution-related mortality projections 160

Figure 3.12. Change in areas where water pollution exceeds standard thresholds 163

Figure 3.13. Mismanaged plastic waste and leakage to the environment 164

Figure 3.14. Projections of intensifying and mutually reinforcing environmental degradation 166

Figure 4.1. Overview of policy objectives considered 189

Figure 4.2. Renewable energy facilities within important conservation areas under operation and development around the world 190

Figure 4.3. Synergies and trade-offs of climate policy objectives 201

Figure 4.4. Practices for diversifying agricultural production at different scales 204

Figure 4.5. Typology of measures to facilitate the persistence and adaptation of biodiversity in a changing climate 208

Figure 4.6. Synergies and trade-offs of biodiversity policy objectives 209

Figure 4.7. Synergies and trade-offs of pollution control policy objectives 215

Figure 5.1. CNEL template extract: Assessing policy impacts on climate change and biodiversity 245

Figure 5.2. Extract from France's Green Budget: Three possible tags applied to mobility projects 257

Figure 6.1. Selected deep dives of key policy responses to the triple planetary crisis 276

Figure 6.2. Risks for adverse local and remote impacts throughout the lifecycle of wind and solar power 281

Figure 6.3. Key aspects in the integration of climate change and pollution in protected areas management 297

Figure 6.4. Simplified view of the nitrogen and phosphorus cycle 313

Figure 6.5. Downstream retention alone is insufficient for efficient phosphorus management 319

Figure 6.6. Key policy considerations deriving from the deep dives 323

Figure 7.1. Number of publications per year for each environmental issue between 2010 and 2024 380

Figure 7.2. Consideration of pairwise linkages in national reporting documents across 10 selected countries 382

Figure 7.3. Integration of climate, biodiversity and pollution considerations across various levels 388

Figure 7.4. Illustrative policy instruments for a resource-efficient and circular economy, organised by their incidence on the economic agent 395

Boxes 12

Box 1.1. Climate change affects marine biodiversity 24

Box 1.2. Plastic pollution, climate change and biodiversity loss 29

Box 1.3. Environmental fate and behaviours of chemicals under climate change: example of pesticides 31

Box 1.4. The complex interlinkages among climate change, wildfires and air pollution and varying impacts of wildfires on biodiversity 33

Box 2.1. Underlying economic and institutional factors that influence trends 78

Box 2.2. The usefulness and limitations of lifecycle assessments 80

Box 2.3. The environmental effects of urbanisation 86

Box 3.1. Biodiversity indicators 149

Box 3.2. Challenges and approaches to valuing biodiversity and ecosystem services 154

Box 4.1. Measures to facilitate persistence and adaptation of biodiversity in a changing climate 207

Box 5.1. The Climate, Nature and Economy Lens in Canada facilitates consideration of the interlinkages of the triple planetary crisis in policy proposals 244

Box 5.2. Argentina's Green Insurance channels funds to offset transport emissions and sustain native forest ecosystems 249

Box 5.3. Watershed management: a key strategy to improve synergies among the three components of the triple planetary crisis 251

Box 5.4. Uganda's strategy embraces ecosystem interconnectedness to tackle biodiversity loss and climate change 254

Box 5.5. Sub-national governments in Japan translates NBSAP into locally tailored and synergistic strategies 255

Box 5.6. France's Green budgeting and its tagging tool integrate six environmental objectives in budget allocation 256

Box 5.7. Land at the nexus of tackling climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution 259

Box 5.8. Circular economy as a cross-cutting solution to tackle biodiversity loss and climate change in Japan and Australia 260

Box 6.1. Comparison of environmental impacts of fossil fuels, wind and solar energy 279

Box 6.2. First criminal judgement against wind farm operators in France 287

Box 6.3. Payments for Ecosystem Services 295

Box 6.4. Protected areas' environmental effectiveness assessment tools 299

Box 6.5. A common framework plan for promoting vertical and horizontal integration: An example of the National Air Pollution Control Programme in the European Union 304

Box 6.6. Greening highways to tackle air pollution and climate change in India 307

Box 6.7. Ground-level ozone management policies 310

Box 6.8. Challenges of implementing Dutch nitrogen targets in protected areas 315

Box 6.9. Managing trade-offs between pollution reduction and biodiversity protection in Peru by regulating the collection of guano, a natural fertiliser 317

Box 6.10. Phosphorus reuse and recycling 319

Annex Tables 11

Annex Table 1.A.1. Examples of health impacts 43

Annex Table 1.B.1. Example of differences in framing of drivers 45

Annex Table 1.E.1. The regional aggregation used in the modelling toolbox 52

Annex Table 2.A.1. Summary of policies included in the baseline 115

Annex Table 2.C.1. Units of the indicators summarising the evolution of the drivers 125

Annex Table 2.C.2. Detailed values of the indicators summarising the evolution of pressures 127

Annex Table 3.A.1. Units of the indicators summarising the evolution of environmental pressures 170

Annex Table 3.A.2. Detailed values of the indicators summarising the evolution of environmental pressures 171

Annex Table 3.A.3. Units of the indicators summarising the evolution of the state of the environment 174

Annex Table 3.A.4. Detailed values of the indicators summarising the state of the environment 174

Annex Table 6.D.1. A three-pronged approach to address nitrogen pollution 342

Annex Figures 11

Annex Figure 2.A.1. Regional population growth ranges from negative to nearly 100% from 2020 to 2050 105

Annex Figure 2.A.2. Life expectancy continues to grow for both men and women 106

Annex Figure 2.A.3. Per capita income grows fastest in the lower- and middle-income regions 107

Annex Figure 2.A.4. Global income growth is driven in roughly equal parts by labour, capital and technology 108

Annex Figure 2.A.5. Services are the largest economic sector, and become even more important by 2050 109

Annex Figure 2.A.6. Export shares of lower-income regions increase for energy and industrial commodities 110

Annex Figure 2.A.7. Energy intensity changes within key sectors 112

Annex Figure 2.A.8. Chemical demand by sector 113

Annex Figure 2.A.9. Plastics use by application in 2020 and 2050 114

Annex Figure 2.A.10. Protected areas per category 117

Annex Figure 2.B.1. Decomposing the evolution in drivers 119

Annex Figure 2.B.2. Regional decomposition of the drivers of GHG emissions 120

Annex Figure 2.B.3. Projections of relative decoupling in the drivers of environmental pressures 122

Annex Figure 2.B.4. GHG emissions per capita and GDP per capita, 1990-2020 123

Annex Figure 2.C.1. Evolution of drivers and socio-economic trends behind environmental pressures compared to 2020 values 126

Annex Figure 3.B.1. Temperature-related mortality risk of climate change is rapidly rising over time 177

Annex Figure 6.C.1. Integration of protected areas at the national level 333

Annex Figure 6.C.2. Policies to deal with air pollution 334

Annex Boxes 12

Annex Box 1.C.1. Modelling environment-saving technological progress in ENV-Linkages 47

Annex Box 2.B.1. Environmental Kuznets Curve - the example of GHG emissions 123

Annex Box 6.D.1. OECD-TFRN three-pronged policy framework 341

Annex Box 6.D.2. Potential seabed and other marine phosphorus mining impacts 343