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Title page
Contents
ABSTRACT 3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 3
1. INTRODUCTION 7
2. WHY IS THE EURO STILL PUNCHING BELOW ITS WEIGHT? 8
3. THE EU'S POLICY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO 14
4. THE SAFE ASSET SHORTAGE PROBLEM 16
4.1. THE GLOBAL CONTEXT 16
4.2. THE EUROPEAN DEBATE ON CREATING A COMMON SAFE ASSET 21
5. THE EU'S RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC: POSITIVE EFFECTS ON THE EURO'S GLOBAL ROLE 26
5.1. FISCAL RESPONSE AT NATIONAL LEVEL AND THE SUPPLY OF SAFE ASSETS 26
5.2. THE NEW SUPRANATIONAL FACILITIES 28
5.2.1. Description of the new facilities 28
5.2.2. How big are the new facilities? 29
5.2.3. Implementation, and reception by international investors 32
5.3. OTHER RELEVANT ASPECTS OF THE EU'S RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC 34
6. A LESS OPTIMISTIC VIEW 36
7. A MORE COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY 40
8. TOWARDS A MULTIPOLAR CURRENCY SYSTEM? 43
REFERENCES 47
ANNEX I 53
Table 2.1. Key characteristics of major economies, 2020 9
Table 4.1. Euro area sovereign credit ratings 19
Table 4.2. Estimated Impact of Selected Common Safe Asset Proposals on the Supply of Safe Assets 23
Table 4.3. Share of non-euro area investors in sovereign bonds 25
Table 5.1. How big are the NGEU and SURE programmes? 31
Table 6.1. Eurosystem's purchases of public securities under PSPP and PEPP 38
Figure 2.1. International roles of the euro and the US dollar: a snapshot 9
Figure 2.2. Composite Index of the International Role of the Euro 10
Figure 2.3. Financial structure: banks versus securities markets, 2017 11
Figure 2.4. Trends in financial integration in the euro area 12
Figure 4.1. Trends in global reserves excluding gold, 1995-2020 17
Figure 4.2. Market capitalisation of Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate of AAA assets 18
Figure 4.3. Stock of euro area sovereign debt securities, 1999-2020 20
Figure 4.4. Safe and other assets: euro area versus other large economies, 2019 20
Figure 4.5. Share of non-euro area investors in EFSF and ESM bonds 25
Figure 4.6. Trends in foreign official holdings of outstanding sovereign debt 25
Figure 5.1. Fiscal response to COVID-19 crisis, 2020-2021 26
Figure 5.2. General government deficit, euro area 26
Figure 5.3. Trends in euro area public debt prior to and after the pandemic 27
Figure 5.4. Potential issuance under pandemic-related facilites 30
Figure 5.5. EU supranational debt denominated in euros 30
Figure 5.6. Gross issuance by German federal government 30
Figure 5.7. Gross issuance by AAA/AA euro area goverments 30
Figure 5.8. Geographical breakdown of investors in SURE and NGEU syndicated bonds 33
Figure 5.9. SURE and NGEU bonds: maturities and participation of central banks and foreign investors 33
Figure 5.10. Currency composition of international green bond issuance 34
Figure 6.1. Cumulative purchases of public securities under the PSPP and PEPP 38
Figure 8.1. Currency composition of global FX reserves 44
Figure 8.2. Trends towards a multi-polar world economy 44
Figure 8.3. Currency composition of Russia's reserves 45
Annex Tables
Table A.1. Outstanding stock of debt issued in euros by EU supranational institutions, 2002-2021 53
Table A.2. SURE and NGEU bond syndications - Role of central bank and foreign investors 54
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