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Title page

Contents

Executive Summary 9

Collaboration: Positive-Sum Outputs 11

Coordination: Zero-Sum Outputs 13

Consultation: Positive Output Despite Disagreement 14

Introduction 15

1. Part I: The US & France in the Indo-Pacific 18

1.1. The Indo-Pacific State of Play: Interests and Challenges 18

Interests 18

Challenges 19

1.2. Common Objectives and Strategic Convergence 27

The United States 28

France 29

The European Union 29

2. Part II: China's Imperatives in the Indo-Pacific 31

2.1. Avoiding Chinese Domination in the Indo-Pacific 31

2.2. China's Stated Intentions: China's 2049 Initiative 32

2.3. Indo-Pacific Domination: Gateway toward 2035 and 2049 Objectives 35

Peripheral Diplomacy 35

Community of Common Destiny 36

One China 37

2.4. Constraining China's Strategic Objectives 38

Obstacles to Economic Domination 39

Trade Regulation 41

Armament Exports 43

Diplomatic Competition 44

2.5. Gray Zone Operations: China's Toolkit against the French-U.S. Impediment 50

Defining Gray Zone Operations 51

China's Use of Gray Zone Operations in the Physical Space 52

China's Use of Gray Zone Operations in the Cognitive Space 63

3. Part III: Roadmap toward 2049 82

3.1. Reinventing the North Atlantic's Oldest Alliance 82

3.2. Diplomacy, Economy, Information, and Security: Imperatives of Collaboration, Coordination, and Consultation 84

3.3. Collaboration: Positive-Sum Outputs 86

Transnational Threat Collaboration 87

Economic Collaboration 87

Freedom of Navigation Collaboration 88

Regional Military Collaboration 90

Intelligence Sharing 92

3.4. Coordination: Zero-Sum Outputs 93

Diplomatic Coordination 93

Strategic Competition Coordination 94

Security Coordination 95

3.5. Consultation: Positive Output Despite Disagreement 96

Different Worldviews 96

Trade 97

Security 97

Consultations toward Pareto 98

Information and Intelligence 98

Conclusion 100

Figures

Figure 1. Security Issueees in the Indo-pacific 15

Figure 2. Pacific Islands Region Map 17

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