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Title page
Contents
Acknowledgements 4
Abstract 5
Resume 6
In brief 8
1. Introduction 10
2. Tracking deaths through the pandemic 13
2.1. Heatwaves and the return of respiratory infections contributed to high mortality in 2022 15
3. Determining the impact of demographic change on mortality trends 16
3.1. Demographic change has a significant impact on mortality 18
3.2. Increasing mortality rates reached a peak in 2021 19
3.3. Overall mortality driven by deaths in older age groups 21
3.4. Mortality in 2022 remained higher than pre-pandemic rates 23
3.5. Greater health system capacity continues to be associated with better health outcomes 26
4. Limitations and discussion 28
Annex A. Methodological note 33
Annex B. ASMR by country, 2015-22 37
OECD Health Working Papers 39
Recent related OECD publications 40
Figure 1. The pandemic reversed the trend of gradually declining mortality across the OECD 9
Figure 2.1. Annual deaths jumped by up to 2 million across the OECD during the pandemic 13
Figure 2.2. The number of additional all-cause deaths and COVID-19 deaths peaked in early 2021 14
Figure 2.3. Nearly one in five deaths were reported as COVID-19 deaths around the end of 2020 15
Figure 3.1. The number of people aged 65+ has risen significantly across the OECD since 2015 17
Figure 3.2. Deaths from 2020 to 2022 were up by 5%, when adjusted for demographic change 18
Figure 3.3. Mortality reached a peak in most countries in 2021 20
Figure 3.4. Most deaths occur at 65+, but some countries saw increased mortality at younger ages 22
Figure 3.5. Age-standardised mortality rates across selected OECD countries, 2015-22 24
Figure 3.6. Countries with high mortality rates pre-pandemic saw the greatest increases 25
Figure 4.1. Comparing OECD and ONS estimates of change in mortality, European countries 28
Figure 4.2. Mortality trends impact for selected countries 29
Boxes
Box 1.1. Understanding different approaches to measure 'excess mortality' 11
Box 3.1. Methodology to explore associations with changes in ASMR 26
Box 4.1. The impact of pre-pandemic mortality trends 29
Annex Tables
Table 1. Key all-cause mortality and population data sources 34
Table B.1. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) 37
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