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Title page

Contents

Preface 4

Acknowledgements 8

Executive summary: Job resilience amidst rising fragility 9

1. Labour market resilience will be tested in the near term 14

Growth has proved to be resilient amidst rising fragility 14

Economic resilience held labour market conditions steady in 2023 17

Looking ahead, there are risks that job creation will deteriorate further 23

Persistent decent work deficits are undermining long-run progress 25

References 30

2. Employment and social trends by region 31

Overview 31

Africa 32

Labour market trends in North Africa 32

Labour market trends in sub-Saharan Africa 33

Data challenges for evidence-based labour migration governance in Africa 34

Americas 36

Labour market trends in Latin America and the Caribbean 36

Stagnating labour productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean 38

Labour market trends in North America 38

Arab States 39

Labour market trends in the Arab States 39

Labour market implications of forced displacements 41

Asia and the Pacific 42

Labour market trends in Asia and the Pacific 43

Informality and new forms of work in Asia and the Pacific 44

Europe and Central Asia 46

Labour market trends in Europe and Central Asia 46

Mixed pictures of youth unemployment in Europe 48

References 50

3. Labour shortages amidst unmet demand for decent work 54

Overview 54

A growing demand for labour 55

Labour demand: Unfilled vacancies in advanced economies 55

Local and global consequences of labour and skills shortages 57

Labour supply 57

Labour force participation: Are fewer people working or looking for jobs? 58

Hours worked: Mean and total hours have diverged 60

Do labour markets fail to adjust? 62

Labour shortages might become entrenched 65

Concluding remarks: Priorities for action 66

References 68

Appendix A. Groupings of countries by region and income level 74

Appendix B. ILO modelled estimates 76

Appendix C. Tables of labour market indicators by regional groups 77

Table 1.1. Jobs gap and jobs gap rate, 2019-23, by sex, world and income group 20

Table 1.2. Labour force participation rates by income group, 2019-25 24

Table 1.3. Unemployment and unemployment rate, 2019-25, by sex, world and income group 25

Table 1.4. Working poverty, 2020-23, world and by country income group 27

Table 2.1. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Africa, 2010-25 33

Table 2.2. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Americas, 2010-25 37

Table 2.3. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Arab States, 2010-25 40

Table 2.4. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Asia and the Pacific, 2010-25 43

Table 2.5. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Europe and Central Asia, 2010-25 47

Figure 1.1. Projected GDP growth in 2023, comparing October 2022 and October 2023 outlooks 15

Figure 1.2. GDP growth outlook (percentage change) 16

Figure 1.3. Recent and projected changes in inflation 17

Figure 1.4. Total labour force participation rates 18

Figure 1.5. Unemployment rates 19

Figure 1.6. Employment growth, 2020-23, by sex and country income groups 20

Figure 1.7. Mean weekly hours actually worked per employed person, 2019 and 2023, by country income group and sex 21

Figure 1.8. Annual real wage growth in 2023 22

Figure 1.9. Employment growth, 2023-25, by sex and country income groups 23

Figure 1.10. Gender gap in participation rates, 2023 and 2025 26

Figure 1.11. Youth and adult unemployment rates 26

Figure 1.12. Informal employment as share of total employment, 2004-24 27

Figure 1.13. Growth of population aged 20 to 64, by time period and country income group (compound annual percentages) 29

Figure 2.1. International stock of migrant workers, Africa and subregions, total and female share, 2010-19 35

Figure 2.2. Average annual productivity growth rate, 2015-23 38

Figure 2.3. Gender disparities in labour market outcomes in the Arab States, 2023 41

Figure 2.4. Informal employment rates, Asia and the Pacific and subregions, 2004-23 45

Figure 2.5. Prevailing youth unemployment rates, compared with highs and lows between 2003 and 2023, European Union 49

Figure 3.1. Channels of labour market adjustment and resulting imbalances 55

Figure 3.2. Job vacancies in selected (advanced) economies, January 2002 to September 2023 (standard deviations from mean) 56

Figure 3.3. Female labour force participation rates compared with the pre-pandemic historical trend (deviation from trend in percentage points) 58

Figure 3.4. Youth labour force participation 59

Figure 3.5. Youth NEET, by sex and income group (percentages of the population aged 15 to 24) 60

Figure 3.6. Total hours versus mean hours actually worked per employed person 61

Figure 3.7. Number of sick days per worker and year and percentage increase, 2019-22 62

Boxes

Box 1.1. Investment levels fell modestly in the face of higher borrowing costs 15

Box 1.2. Global spillovers: Risks of deteriorating GDP that could exacerbate employment challenges 16

Box 1.3. Baby boom versus baby bust: The labour market impacts of inflation in the 2020s compared with the 1970s 29

Box 2.1. Impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on total employment in the Occupied Palestinian Territory 39

Box 3.1. Dual-track global skills partnerships 67

Table C1. World 77

Table C2. Africa 79

Table C3. North Africa 81

Table C4. Sub-Saharan Africa 83

Table C5. Latin America and the Caribbean 85

Table C6. North America 87

Table C7. Arab States (non-GCC) 89

Table C8. Arab States (GCC) 91

Table C9. East Asia 93

Table C10. South-East Asia 95

Table C11. South Asia 97

Table C12. The Pacific 99

Table C13. Northern, Southern and Western Europe 101

Table C14. Eastern Europe 103

Table C15. Central and Western Asia 105

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