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Title page
Contents
1. Introduction 7
2. Background and literature 8
3. Modeling approach and data 10
3.1. The MINDSET model 10
3.2. Scenario description 12
3.2.1. Policy basket and country selection 12
3.2.2. Economic structure in selected countries and readiness for clean energy transition 13
3.2.3. Clean energy investments 15
4. Discussion of results 17
4.1. Ambitious investment and high potential demand for jobs - winners under 1.5C 20
4.1.1. Egypt 20
4.1.2. India 22
4.1.3. Pakistan 25
4.2. Coal mining winners 26
4.2.1. Indonesia 26
4.2.2. South Africa 28
4.3. Muddling through 31
4.3.1. Mexico 31
4.3.2. Thailand 32
4.3.3. Philippines 33
4.4. Challenged by underinvestment 35
4.4.1. Brazil 35
4.4.2. Türkiye 37
4.4.3. Colombia 38
5. Summary and conclusions 38
6. References 40
Table 1. Overview of investment under the scenario and 2019 emission shares 17
Table 2. Overview of results from scenario 1.5C 17
Figure 1. Output shares of aggregated sectors in percent 13
Figure 2. Sectoral shares of employment, percent 14
Figure 3. Employment shares in sectors relevant for the clean energy transition 15
Figure 4. Investment in clean energy, USD billion 16
Figure 5. Employment effects by sector, relative difference to base 18
Figure 6. Employment effects by country, absolute and relative difference to baseline 19
Figure 7. Sectoral output by driver, absolute (in MM USD) and relative difference (in %) to the baseline - Egypt 21
Figure 8. Additional labor demand by skill level - Egypt, absolute and relative differences to baseline 22
Figure 9. Additional labor demand by gender - Egypt, absolute and relative differences to baseline 22
Figure 10. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - India 23
Figure 11. Additional labor demand by skill level - India, absolute and relative differences to baseline 24
Figure 12. Additional labor demand by gender - India, absolute and relative differences to baseline 24
Figure 13. Additional labor demand by skill level - Pakistan, absolute and relative differences to baseline 25
Figure 14. Additional labor demand by gender - Pakistan, absolute and relative differences to baseline 26
Figure 15. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Indonesia 27
Figure 16. Additional labor demand by skill level - Indonesia, absolute and relative differences to baseline 28
Figure 17. Additional labor demand by gender - Indonesia, absolute and relative differences to baseline 28
Figure 18. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - South Africa 29
Figure 19. Additional labor demand by skill level - South Africa, absolute and relative differences to baseline 30
Figure 20. Additional labor demand by gender - South Africa, absolute and relative differences to baseline 30
Figure 21. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Mexico 31
Figure 22. Additional labor demand by skill level - Mexico, absolute and relative differences to baseline 32
Figure 23. Additional labor demand by gender - Mexico, absolute and relative differences to baseline 32
Figure 24. Additional labor demand by skill level - Thailand, absolute and relative differences to baseline 33
Figure 25. Additional labor demand by gender - Thailand, absolute and relative differences to baseline 33
Figure 26. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Philippines 34
Figure 27. Additional labor demand by skill level - Philippines, absolute and relative differences to baseline 34
Figure 28. Additional labor demand by gender - Philippines, absolute and relative differences to baseline 35
Figure 29. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Brazil 36
Figure 30. Additional labor demand by skill level - Brazil, absolute and relative differences to baseline 36
Figure 31. Additional labor demand by gender - Brazil, absolute and relative differences to baseline 37
Figure 32. Sectoral output by driver, absolute and relative difference to the baseline - Türkiye 37
Figure 33. Additional labor demand by gender - Colombia, absolute and relative differences to baseline 38
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