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Title page
Contents
Abstract 1
1. Globalization: Rumors of its impending demise have been exaggerated but survival requires collective effort 4
The sinews of globalization: GVCs 8
2. Global prosperity under threat 9
Pollution and infectious disease 10
Climate change 10
Geo-political tensions and mineral supplies 13
Food (in)security 15
Transportation bottlenecks 18
3. GVCs are complex, fragmentary and with long tails 19
Semiconductors 19
Automobile supply chains 21
Vaccine and PPE supply chains 22
Other supply chains 24
4. GVCs (and globalization) imperiled 26
Globalization, crises, and policy reactions 26
Magnifiers of deglobalization tendencies 28
5. Trade wars, incipient decoupling, and derisking using strategic industrial policies 30
The new face of strategic industrial policy and international trade 33
6. Resilient GVCs for a multipolar world 35
7. Concluding remarks on issues and policies 39
References 41
Endnotes 55
Figure 1. World trade helped reduce extreme poverty by three fourths since the early 1990s 5
Figure 2. Projected global fossil fuel production and excess over 1.5℃/2℃ climate goals 5
Figure 3. World trade as a percent of GDP 6
Figure 4. DHL global connectedness index 2001-2022 7
Figure 5. Growth of trade and transport use 1965-2020 7
Figure 6a. Earth's average temperature: 1850-2023 11
Figure 6b. Ocean temperatures on the rise 11
Figure 7. Distribution rising temperatures worldwide 11
Figure 8a. Carbon concentration in the atmosphere 12
Figure 8b. Rising CO₂ emissions 12
Figure 9. Share of top three countries in mining of selected minerals 14
Figure 10. Critical mineral sources and their processing 14
Figure 11. Sources of copper and where it is refined 15
Figure 12. Share of imported oils in total consumption 16
Figure 13. Potential yield of soybean under traditional and modern production regimes 17
Figure 14. Fertilizer prices 17
Figure 15. Mineral used for EVs and conventional cars 22
Figure 16. Stages of vaccine manufacturing 23
Figure 17. PPE supply chains 25
Figure 18. Quantitative restrictions are on an upward trend since 2012 27
Figure 19. So also, are countervailing measures 28
Figure 20. Shares of the US, China, and other countries in ten strategic industries 1995-2020 29
Figure 21. Greater openness was correlated with declining conflict 31
Figure 22. FDI into China 32
Figure 23. Leading suppliers to US manufacturers 1995 and 2018 34
Figure 24. Trade of IPEF countries becoming more integrated with China 35
Figure 25. Imports by the EU of intermediate and strategic goods 38
초록보기 더보기
Discontent has dogged globalization for over two decades even as it has tangibly contributed to growth and poverty reduction worldwide with global value chains (GVCs) serving as its sinews. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the degree to which countries depend upon an international network of suppliers for a wide range of commodities and services. That crisis, climate change, and other existential threats in the offing, bring home the need for countries to hang together, or they will hang separately. No country however large, will benefit from the overzealous pursuit of greater self-sufficiency, and for the majority, attempting to achieve even a moderate degree of autarky would entail sacrificing decades of material progress, although under the circumstances, the pursuit of strategic industrial policies by some countries may be prudent. A fracturing of the institutional infrastructure undergirding globalization and a turning inward, would also materially hamper efforts to cope with urgent national problems and international crises. Thus, the imperative for the leading economic powers is to defuse the threats to globalization and to promote resilience of GVCs. In this endeavor, the economic advantages of globalization will be pitted against strong political currents breeding domestic distrust among nations and making it harder to agree on policies necessary for economic flourishing in a planetary environment the viability of which is no longer assured. The paper makes the case that the flows of trade, capital, and technology should be safeguarded, and that dealing with the downsides of globalization is not beyond the wit of humanity.
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