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Title page

Contents

SUMMARY 5

1. INTRODUCTION: THE MOMENT WE'RE IN 9

1.1. THE DEBATE AROUND AUTOMATION AND THE LABOUR MARKET: WILL THIS TIME BE DIFFERENT? 9

1.2. THE POLICY DEBATE AROUND AUTOMATION NEEDS A STEP CHANGE 11

2. WHY THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT - GENERATIVE AI IS HERE 12

2.1. WHAT CAN AND CAN'T EXISTING GENERATIVE AI DO? 12

2.2. ASSESSING EXPOSURE TO AI 13

3. WHO IS MOST EXPOSED TO GENERATIVE AI? 15

3.1. COGNITIVE TASKS ARE MOST EXPOSED TO GENERATIVE AI 15

3.2. BACK OFFICE JOBS ARE MOST EXPOSED TO 'HERE AND NOW' AI 17

4. SCENARIOS FOR HOW GENERATIVE AI COULD AFFECT WORK IN THE FUTURE 22

4.1. WHETHER AI WILL BOOST WAGES AND GROWTH WILL DEPEND ON HOW IT IS IMPLEMENTED 22

4.2. THERE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH 'SIMILAR' JOBS AVAILABLE FOR DISPLACED WORKERS 26

4.3. INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY CAN HELP CREATE DEMAND FOR NEW OR LESS-EXPOSED TASKS 28

5. TOWARDS A JOB-CENTRIC INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR AI 34

REFERENCES 36

APPENDIX 39

Tables

TABLE 4.1. EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY SCENARIOS 25

Figures

FIGURE 3.1. A MUCH HIGHER SHARE OF TASKS IN THE UK LABOUR MARKET COULD BE DONE WITH GENERATIVE AI IF SOCIAL NORMS AND PROCESS... 15

FIGURE 3.2. ABOUT HALF OF THE TASKS IN THE UK ECONOMY HAVE LOW EXPOSURE TO EXISTING GENERATIVE AI TECHNOLOGIES BUT HIGHER EXPOSURES... 17

FIGURE 3.3. 45 PERCENT OF TASKS IN THE 'SECRETARIAL AND RELATED OCCUPATIONS' ARE EXPOSED TO 'HERE AND NOW' GENERATIVE AI 18

FIGURE 3.4. IN PHASE 2, WHERE AI BECOMES MORE INTEGRATED IN WORKFLOWS, MORE THAN HALF OF OCCUPATIONS ARE HIGHLY EXPOSED 19

FIGURE 3.5. MEDIUM AND LOW EARNERS ARE EXPOSED TO CURRENT GENERATIVE AI 21

FIGURE 4.1. IN ADMINISTRATIVE OCCUPATIONS, ABOUT ONE=THIRD OF JOBS COULD BE DISPLACED 23

FIGURE 4.2. SECRETARIAL AND RELATED OCCUPATIONS COULD SEE THE LARGEST PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES IN THE CENTRAL SCENARIO 24

FIGURE 4.3. ELEMENTARY ADMINISTRATION OCCUPATIONS WOULD RECEIVE AN INFLOW OF OVER 75 PERCENT OF THEIR EXISTING LABOUR FORCE,... 27

FIGURE 4.4. GREEN JOBS HAVE A RELATIVELY HIGHER SHARE OF MANUAL AND COMMUNICATIVE TASKS, WHICH HAVE LOWER EXPOSURE TO AUTOMATION 29

FIGURE 4.5. AN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY COULD FOCUS ON JOBS WITH A HIGH SHARE OF 'SOCIAL TASKS' AS THESE CAN BE LESS AT RISK TO FULL AUTOMATION 30

FIGURE 4.6. THE PROCESS OF RINGFENCING TASKS IN AN ORGANISATION, JOINTLY CONDUCTED BY A RANGE OF STAKEHOLDERS 32

FIGURE 4.7. AUTOMATION-RESISTANT TASKS WOULD GROW AS A SHARE OF GDP 33

FIGURE 5.1. POLICY PILLARS FOR A JOB-CENTRIC INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR AI 35

Boxes

BOX 1. METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING EXPOSURE TO GENERATIVE AI 14

BOX 2. EARLY EXAMPLES OF JOBS AFFECTED BY GENERATIVE AI IN THE US LABOUR MARKET 19

BOX 3. METHODOLOGY FOR JOB TRANSITIONS 28

Appendix Figures

FIGURE A.1. INTEGRATED AI: EXPOSURE TO AUTOMATION IS FAIRLY EVENLY SPREAD ACROSS WAGE LEVELS 41

FIGURE A.2. WOMEN ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY EXPOSED TO 'HERE AND NOW' AI 42

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