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Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Automation and Gender: Some Descriptive Patterns 7

2.1. Automation Risk Measure 8

2.2. Gender Gaps in Automation Risk 8

3. Cross-Commuting Zone Analysis 11

3.1. Data 11

3.2. Empirical Strategy 12

3.3. Correlational Evidence Across Commuting Zones 13

3.4. Instrumental Variables Approach 15

3.5. Effects on Skill Investments 17

3.6. Between vs. Within Cohorts Effects 18

3.7. Alternative Hypotheses: Trade Shocks, Offshoring Potential, and Gender Norms 19

4. Model 20

4.1. Analytical Predictions 21

4.2. Evidence for Model Assumptions and Empirical Implications 23

5. Conclusion 26

References 28

Appendix 45

A. Data Appendix 45

B. Model Appendix - Proofs 46

C. Appendix Tables and Figures 49

Tables

Table 1. Routine Employment Share and Change in the Occupational Employment Shares within Commuting Zones, 1980-2017 39

Table 2. Routine Employment Share and Changes in Occupational Segregation by Gender within Commuting Zones, 1980-2017 40

Table 3. Routine Employment Share and Changes in College Share by Gender and the College Gap, 1980-2017 41

Table 4. Between and Within Cohorts Effects. Routine Employment Share, Changes in Occupational Distribution and Skill Investments, 1980-2017 42

Table 5. Changes in Employment Share of Specific Occupation Groups Defined Based on Social/Math Skill Intensity, 1980-2017 43

Table 6. Routine Employment Share and Change in Wage Levels within Commuting Zones, 1980-2017, Reduced Form OLS Estimates 44

Figures

Figure 1. Trends in Occupational Segregation and the Gender College Gap 33

Figure 2. Task Inputs, Changes in Occupational Shares, and Occupational Segregation 34

Figure 3. Change in Employment and RTI by Gender 35

Figure 4. Change in Aggregate Employment Share from 1980 to 2017 Across Broad Occupation Groups by Gender 36

Figure 5. Change in Employment by Female Share Percentile and CZ group 37

Figure 6. Change in Employment Share by CZ and Gender 38

Appendix Tables

Appendix Table 1. RTI and Other Occupational Characteristics 49

Appendix Table 2. Descriptive Statistics at the CZ and Decade Level 50

Appendix Table 3. First Stage Regressions 51

Appendix Table 4. Social and Math Skills Composition of Main Occupational Groups, 1980 52

Appendix Table 5. Robustness Tests 53

Appendix Table 6. Placebo Regressions - Routine Occupation Share and Changes in Occupational Segregation Pre-1980 54

Appendix Table 7. Robustness to Import Exposure and Offshorabilty 55

Appendix Table 8. Robustness to Controlling for Social Norms 56

Appendix Table 9. Occupation Classification 57

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