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Title page
Contents
Summary 2
1. The EU and goal-based policymaking: drifting off course? 4
1.1. INDUSTRIAL POLICY: COMPETITIVE SUSTAINABILITY, SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVENESS OR NONE OF THE ABOVE? 7
1.2. THE RISE OF GEOPOLITICAL AND GEO-ECONOMIC GOALS 11
2. Why the North Star counts: Policy for the poly-crisis age 14
2.1. ALTERNATIVE PATHS TO MEASURE PERFORMANCE 15
2.2. IS THERE A TRILEMMA BETWEEN DECARBONISATION, COMPETITIVENESS AND ECONOMIC SECURITY? 16
3. EU industrial strategy: Mapping outstanding questions 18
3.1. THE TWIN TRANSITION AND EUROPE'S PRIORITIES 18
3.2. MAINSTREAMING DECARBONISATION AND JOBS IN THE 'INDUSTRY 4.0' PARADIGM 19
3.3. THE SINGLE MARKET AND THE EU'S LONG-TERM GOALS 21
3.4. PURSUING SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHICAL IMPACTS OF THE EU'S INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY 23
3.5. MAKING THE MOST OF INDUSTRIAL TRANSITION PATHWAYS 25
4. Implementing a coherent, agile, goal-based industrial policy in the EU 27
4.1. DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN INTERMEDIATE AND FINAL GOALS 27
4.2. FORESIGHT, BACKCASTING AND MULTISTAGE DECISION-MAKING 29
4.3. AMULTISTAGE PROCESS FOR SYSTEMIC INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION 30
Step 1. Selecting the final goals 31
Step 2. Backcasting and alternative futures 31
Step 3. Setting the agenda and policy priorities 31
Step 4. Formulating a comprehensive, polycentric R&I and industrial policy mix 32
Step 5. Co-creating and implementing systemic transformation pathways 33
Step 6. Monitoring and possible course-correcting towards the final goals 33
Table 1. Connection of EU policies to the SDGs 6
Table 2. Taxonomy of EU strategic autonomy policies 12
Figure 1. European Commission priorities and the SDGs 5
Figure 2. The four dimensions of competitive sustainability in the ASGS 2022 9
Figure 3. Sustainable competitiveness: Axes and drivers 10
Figure 4. Europe's trilemma 17
Figure 5. A six-step approach to EU industrial policy 30
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