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Title page
Contents
Acknowledgements 3
Glossary 7
Executive summary 9
Background 16
Context and rationale 17
Climate change 18
Population 19
Economic activity 20
Exposure to hazards 22
Objectives and scope 25
Methodology 26
Step 1. Literature review 26
Step 2. Working sessions 27
Step 3. Collection of numerical and spatial data 27
Step 4. Model urban growth scenarios 28
Step 5. Analyse the policy levers 33
Step 6. Develop recommendations 41
Potential for greenhouse gas emission reduction 42
2050 Forecast for population and land consumption 42
2050 Forecast for population density 48
2050 Forecast for green areas per capita 53
2050 Forecast for proximity to transport 56
2050 Forecast for energy consumption 57
2050 Forecast for greenhouse gas emissions 64
2050 Forecast for economic costs 65
Climate investments co-benefits 77
2050 Forecast for proximity to facilities 77
2050 Forecast for solid waste coverage 79
2050 Forecast for water demand 80
2050 Forecast for exposure to hazards 81
Discussion 84
Bibliography 88
Images
Image 1. Historical GHG emissions in Jordan 18
Image 2. GHG emissions per activity in Jordan 19
Image 3. Population density in Amman 20
Image 4. Economic clusters 21
Image 5. Spatial distribution of GHG emissions and urban clusters 22
Image 6. Population in Amman is exposed to hazards 23
Image 7. Economic activity in the city that is exposed to hazards 24
Image 8. Methodology of the urban growth model and sustainable urban expansion 26
Image 9. Urban planning tools 28
Image 10. Land consumption for each scenario 43
Image 11. Land loss characteristics for each scenario 44
Image 12. Urban expansion for the Business As Usual Scenario - 2050 45
Image 13. Urban expansion for the Plan Scenario - 2050 46
Image 14. Urban expansion for Ambitious Scenario - 2050 47
Image 15. Urban expansion for the Net Zero Scenario - 2050 48
Image 16. Population density distribution in 2020 49
Image 17. Population density distribution in the Business As Usual Scenario - 2050 50
Image 18. Population density distribution in the Plan Scenario - 2050 51
Image 19. Population density distribution in the Ambitious Scenario - 2050 52
Image 20. Population density distribution in the Net Zero Scenario - 2050 53
Image 21. Green areas in Amman 54
Image 22. Green areas per capita 55
Image 23. Energy related to buildings 60
Image 24. Energy consumption of Amman 62
Image 25. Renewable energy generation 64
Image 26. GHG emissions results 65
Image 27. Total capital expenditure of new infrastructure and local policies 71
Image 28. Cost for energy, fuel and commuting time per capita 73
Image 29. Potential proximity to infrastructure by 2050 78
Image 30. Solid waste coverage 79
Image 31. Water demand 80
Image 32. Potential population exposed to pluvial and fluvial floods by 2050 81
Image 33. Potential population exposed to landslides by 2050 82
Image 34. GHG reduction and costs 85
Image 35. Cumulative GHG emission reduction of urban planning and electrification of transport 86
Image 36. Cumulative GHG emission reduction of urban planning, demand side management and enforcement of buildings codes 87
Table 1. Main sources for policy lever definition 33
Table 2. Integrated results for land consumption and population density 55
Table 3. Integrated results for proximity to public transport 57
Table 4. Integrated results for energy consumption 60
Table 5. Integrated results for energy consumption 63
Table 6. Capital expenditures of new infrastructure and local policies 69
Table 7. Annual costs for municipal service per scenario 74
Table 8. Costs for extreme events 75
Table 9. Costs for GHG emissions 76
Table 10. Integrated results for proximity to infrastructure 78
Table 11. Integrated results for exposure to hazards 82
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