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Title page
Contents
Abstract 3
1. Introduction 4
2. Measuring Advances in AI and Robotics 8
2.1. Patent Data 8
2.2. Develop New AI and Robot Measures 8
2.3. Validation of Measures 10
3. AI and Job Tasks: Data and Empirical Strategy 11
3.1. Data on Tasks Performed on the Job 11
3.2. Empirical Strategy 13
3.3. Balancing Test: Do Tasks Predict Future Exposure? 14
4. The Impact of AI on Tasks Performed on the Job 16
4.1. Industry-level Correlations 16
4.2. AI and Worker-Level Tasks 18
4.3. High-level Versus Low-level Routine Tasks 22
4.4. AI and Job Tasks by Worker Skill 23
5. AI and Labor Market Outcomes 27
5.1. Administrative Labor Market Data 27
5.2. Estimation Approach 28
5.3. Displacement Effects of AI and Robots 28
5.4. AI and Worker Reallocation 30
5.5. Impact of AI and Robots on Earnings 31
6. Conclusion 32
References 35
A. Appendix 38
Table 1. Balancing test 15
Table 2. AI and Job Reallocation 31
Figure 1. AI, Robots, and Task Changes at the Industry Level 17
Figure 2. AI, Robots and Job Tasks at the Worker Level 19
Figure 3. AI and Detailed Job Tasks 21
Figure 4. AI and Low- versus High-Level Routine Tasks 23
Figure 5. AI and Detailed Job Tasks by Worker Skill 25
Figure 6. AI and Routine Tasks for Low- and High-skilled Workers 26
Figure 7. Employment effects of AI and Robots 29
Figure 8. Impact of AI on Earnings 33
Table A.1. Industries with the Highest Number of AI and Robot Patents 45
Table A.2. Descriptives of Task Data 46
Table A.3. Top occupations performing individual tasks (part 1) 47
Table A.4. Top occupations performing individual tasks (part 2) 48
Table A.5. Technology and Worker-level Task Shares 49
Table A.6. Comparing the Effects across Time 50
Table A.7. Top occupations performing high-level and low-level routine tasks 51
Table A.8. Descriptive Statistics of Social Security Data (SIAB) 52
Table A.9. Robustness: AI and Job Reallocation 53
Figure A.1. Evolution of AI and Robot Patents over Time 38
Figure A.2. Link between patents and other measures 39
Figure A.3. Robustness: AI and Robots and Job Tasks 40
Figure A.4. Robustness: AI and Low- versus High-Level Routine Tasks 41
Figure A.5. Robustness: Employment effects of AI and Robots 42
Figure A.6. Robustness: Impact of AI on Earnings 43
Figure A.7. Robots and Detailed Job Tasks 44
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