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22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Relevant Literature 7

3. Methodology and Data 12

3.1. Identification of Exports at Risk 12

3.2. Identification of Export Opportunities 16

3.3. Model Description 18

3.4. Data 21

4. ExportsatRisk 22

5. Alternative Export Opportunities 26

6. Concluding Remarks 29

References 33

Tables 31

Table 1. Top 20 high-risk products, 2023 values 31

Table 2. Export Value at Risk based on RCA and RTA, 2023 values 32

Figures 24

Figure 1. Scatterplot of All the Netherlands' Exports to the USA, 2017-2023 by RCA and RTA 24

Figure 2. Total exports from The Netherlands to the USA by Trade Risk Group, 2017-2023 25

Figure 3. Aluminum and Steel Exports from The Netherlands at Risk from USA Tariffs 27

Figure 4. Diversifying Opportunities for the Netherlands' Exports of Aluminium and Steel Products Most at Risk from USA Tariffs, US$ and number 28

초록보기

In retaliating against Trump’s March 2025 imposition of import tariffs on EU aluminum and steel, the EU’s response should be twofold: one, at the EU level, to apply retaliatory tariffs and negotiations, and two, to support country-level efforts to minimize the impact of tariffs, including external substitution. We point out that the EU does not, however, at present seem to explicitly consider external substitution, i.e. finding alternative export markets. We show why this is an omission, and use the case of the Netherlands to illustrate how to find alternative export markets and how this can bolster the EU’s retaliation effort. Our empirical modelling finds that while most of the Netherlands’ exports to the USA are at low-to-medium risk, a smaller portion is at high risk. For aluminum and steel products, the high-risk products face exports-at-risk of US$ 245 million, much lower than some current estimates. For these, we identify alternative export opportunities outside the USA and EU. The USA’s trade policies could push the Netherlands and the wider EU towards closer economic ties with other global players, potentially weakening the USA’s geopolitical standing.

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