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Title page 1

Contents 3

Summary 4

1. A new direction under President Trump 8

1.1. Prioritising a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement 8

Is the US aligning with Russia? 9

Temporary suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing 10

A rare earths deal with Ukraine 11

2. A reset in US-Russian relations 13

2.1. What was the outcome of initial talks? 13

2.2. Other shifts in policy 15

2.3. A Trump-Putin summit? 16

3. A US divergence from Europe? 18

3.1. Votes in the UN to mark the third anniversary of the conflict 19

3.2. A call for Europe to step up on defence 20

3.3. Europe explores a 'coalition of the willing' for Ukraine 21

Would the US support European peacekeepers in Ukraine? 23

Russian opposition to European peacekeepers 23

3.4. A balancing act for the UK 24

4. What does this mean for peace in Ukraine? 26

4.1. A 30-day ceasefire? 26

Russian support: With conditions 28

Direct talks between President Trump and President Putin: 18 March 30

4.2. What happens next? 31

Talks continue in Saudi Arabia 32