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Title page 1

Contents 3

Acknowledgements 2

Executive summary 4

Outlook for world trade in 2025 and 2026 5

Merchandise trade 5

Commercial services trade 11

Trade-related indicators 18

Drivers of trade and output 19

Fragmentation of world trade 22

Analytical Chapter: Modelling trade policy uncertainty and changes in tariffs 24

Bibliography 38

Tables 8

Table 1. Merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2023-2026 8

Table 2. Commercial services trade volume growth, 2023-2026 11

Table 3. Projected change in growth rate of trade and GDP for different regions 27

Boxes 13

Box 1. Measuring global services trade in volume terms 13

Box 2. Economic effects of tariffs 21

Charts 6

Chart 1. World merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2019-2026 6

Chart 2. Contributions to world merchandise trade volume growth by region, 2023-2026 7

Chart 3. Merchandise export and import volume indices by region, 2019Q1-2024Q4 9

Chart 4. Merchandise trade growth by product 10

Chart 5. Merchandise trade of LDCs, 2020‑2024 10

Chart 6. Commercial services trade volume, 2015-2027 12

Chart 7. Commercial services trade volume adjusted forecast, 2015-2026 13

Chart 8a. Commercial services trade growth in value and volume terms, 2019-2024 14

Chart 8b. Computer services trade growth in value and volume terms, 2019-2024 14

Chart 9. Commercial services trade growth by sector, 2023-2024 15

Chart 10. Commercial services trade growth by region and main sector, 2024 16

Chart 11. Global container throughput index, January 2019-February 2025 18

Chart 12. New export orders from purchasing managers indices (PMIs) 19

Chart 13. Trade within and between hypothetical geopolitical blocs (left) and difference of between-bloc and within-bloc trade (right) 23

Chart 14. WTO members' average tariff, 2022 25

Chart 15. Trade-weighted average US tariff increase and contribution of different policies 28

Chart 16. Projected change in growth rate of world trade and GDP 29

Chart 17. Projected changes in real GDP as a function of the share of exports going to the United States 30

Chart 18. Trade diversion impacts: projected per cent changes in merchandise exports to the United States and imports from China and projected point changes... 31

Appendix Tables 33

Appendix Table 1. Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2024 33

Appendix Table 2. Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade excluding intra-EU trade, 2024 34

Appendix Table 3. Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 2024 35

Appendix Table 4. Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding intra-EU trade, 2024 36

Appendix Table 5. Leading exporters and importers of digitally delivered services, 2024 37

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