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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 4

2. Conceptual Discussion 6

3. Data 7

3.1. Firm-Level Customs Transaction Data 7

3.2. Green Value Chains Data 9

3.3. Tariff Data 9

3.4. NTM Data 9

4. Stylized Facts 10

5. Empirical Methodology 12

6. Results 14

6.1. Intensive Margin of Imports: Baseline Results 14

6.2. Intensive Margin of Imports: Robustness Results 17

6.3. Intensive Margin of Imports: Heterogeneity Results 19

6.4. Extensive Margin of Imports: Baseline Results 19

6.5. Extensive Margin of Imports: Heterogeneity Results 20

6.6. Extensive Margin of Imports: Robustness Results 20

7. Conclusion 21

References 35

Appendix 39

A. Data and Stylized facts 39

B. Robustness Checks - Intensive margin 45

C. Robustness Checks - Extensive margin 53

D. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Results by Region 60

E. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Results by Region 66

Tables 26

Table 1. Summary Statistics 26

Table 2. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Baseline Results 27

Table 3. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Heterogeneous Effects of India 28

Table 4. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Heterogeneous Effects of Green Products 29

Table 5. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Margins of Imports 30

Table 6. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Heterogeneous Effects of Single-Product Firm 31

Table 7. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Baseline Results 32

Table 8. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - India Interaction 33

Table 9. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Heterogeneous Effects of Single-Product Firm 34

Figures 22

Figure 1. Evolution of Firm-level Outcome Variables, averages by Country, Value Chain, and Year 22

Figure 2. Evolution of Tariffs, by product group and year 23

Figure 3. Tariffs and Advalorem Equivalents (AVEs) of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), by Value Chain and Segment 24

Figure 4. Outcome Variables vs. Tariffs 25

Appendix Tables 39

Table A1. Country Coverage 39

Table A2. Description of Value Chain Segments and Examples 40

Table A3. Number of HS 2017 6-digit products, by value chain and segment 40

Table A4. Summary Statistics including India 41

Table A5. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Heterogeneous Effects of Green Products - By Segment 42

Table A6. Two-sample t-test with equal variances - share of homogeneous products at the HS 4-digit subsector 43

Table A7. Two-sample t-test with equal variances - share of intermediate products at the HS 4-digit subsectors 43

Table B1. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Excluding negative AVE NTMs 45

Table B2. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Standard Errors Clustered at firm level 46

Table B3. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Bootstrapped Standard Errors 47

Table B4. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Count variables for SPS and TBT measures 48

Table B5. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Indicator variables for SPS and TBT measures 49

Table B6. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - SPS and TBT AVEs set to zero if their count variables equals zero 50

Table B7. Control Function Estimates 51

Table B8. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Controlling for Inverse Mills Ratio 52

Table C1. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Excluding negative AVE NTMs 53

Table C2. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Standard Errors Clustered at Firm Level 54

Table C3. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Bootstrapped Standard Errors 55

Table C4. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Count variables for SPS and TBT measures 56

Table C5. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Indicator variables for SPS and TBT measures 57

Table C6. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - AVEs equal to zero if count equal zero 58

Table C7. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Controlling for Inverse Mills Ratio 59

Table D1. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - By region 60

Table D2. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - East Asia and Pacific 61

Table D3. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Europe and Central Asia 62

Table D4. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Latin America and the Caribbean 63

Table D5. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - South Asia 64

Table D6. Intensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Sub-Saharan Africa 65

Table E1. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - By region 66

Table E2. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - East Asia and Pacific 67

Table E3. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Europe and Central Asia 68

Table E4. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Latin America and the Caribbean 69

Table E5. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - South Asia 70

Table E6. Extensive Margin of Firm-level Imports - Sub-Saharan Africa 71

Appendix Figures 43

Figure A1. Green Value Chain Imports as a Share of Total Imports, 2017 and 2021 43

Figure A2. Firm-Level Import Diversification, 2017 vs. 2021 44

Figure A3. Evolution of Tariffs over Time by Green Value Chain, Top-10 Countries 44

초록보기

Addressing climate change requires the deployment of green technologies. Using novel transaction-level import data from firms in 35 emerging markets in a firm-level structural gravity model, this paper examines the trade policy determinants of firms’ imports of products associated with green value chains of solar photovoltaic, wind power, and electric vehicles. The panel estimates indicate that firms’ import response to tariffs is particularly adverse for products associated with green value chains relative to average imports, driven by the solar value chain and downstream segments across all green value chains. This effect is pervasive for both the values and quantities imported by firms as well as for the probability of firms importing these products. Moreover, the effect is even more negative for undiversified firms. In contrast, import regulations have a smaller and more varied impact on firms’ imports of products associated with green value chains. The findings suggest that governments in emerging markets should avoid adopting protectionist policies that are increasingly used in high-income countries, as their local firms rely on imports for the short-term diffusion of green technologies.

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