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Title page 1

Contents 7

Acknowledgments 10

About the Authors 14

Executive Summary 16

Abbreviations 22

Introduction 23

Strengthening and Expanding Social Protection: Substantial Progress, but a Long Way to Go 26

Four Policy Action Areas for More and Better Social Protection 29

Speeding Up the Spread of Stronger and Better Social Protection 33

About the Report and Data 34

Notes 36

References 37

CHAPTER 1. The 2-Billion-Person Challenge 42

Notes 48

References 48

CHAPTER 2. Assessing Country Performance 49

Coverage: Noticeable Growth, but at Far Too Slow a Pace 50

Adequacy: Low Benefit Levels with Limited Impact on Poverty 63

Financing: Low Spending Compared to Needs 68

Strengthening Systems for Shocks and Crises: Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic 72

Notes 78

References 79

CHAPTER 3. Navigating Global Headwinds: Spending More and Better to Strengthen and Expand Social Protection 84

Context Matters: A Simple Taxonomy of Potential Reforms 87

Focusing Noncontributory Transfers on People Who Need Them Most 89

Harnessing the Unexploited Potential of Subsidy Reforms 92

Strengthening Delivery Systems for Greater Shock Responsiveness and Better Social and Fiscal Policies 94

Leveraging Social Protection to Promote Opportunities in the Labor Market 95

Doubling Down on Resilience and Shock and Crisis Responsiveness 98

Notes 101

References 102

Conclusion 108

Figures 8

FIGURE 1.1. Two Billion People in Low- and Middle-Income Countries Are Missed or Inadequately Covered by Social Protection 43

FIGURE 1.2. The Coverage Gap Increases Substantially if China and India Are Excluded 45

FIGURE 1.3. The Coverage Gap Rises to Almost Half for Those in the Poorest Quintile 46

FIGURE 1.4. In Low-Income Countries, Coverage Gaps Reach 98 percent among the Extreme Poor 47

FIGURE 2.1. Access to Social Protection Has Expanded Considerably over the Past Decade 50

FIGURE 2.2. Social Assistance Has the Greatest Coverage 52

FIGURE 2.3. Large Social Protection Coverage Gaps Persist Even When Contributors to Social Insurance Are Counted 54

FIGURE 2.4. Continuous Investments in Flagship Programs Have Facilitated Substantial Expansions 55

FIGURE 2.5. Cash Transfers and School Feeding Have the Highest Rates of Coverage among Social Assistance Programs 56

FIGURE 2.6. Outside Europe and Central Asia, Few People Contribute to Social Insurance Programs 59

FIGURE 2.7. The Number and Types of Active Labor Market Programs Offered Vary by Countries' Income Levels 62

FIGURE 2.8. Adequacy of Benefits Remains Low, Especially in Lower-Income Countries 64

FIGURE 2.9. The Poverty Impact of Social Assistance Is Stronger in High-Income Countries 65

FIGURE 2.10. Social Pensions and Unconditional Cash Transfers Are the Most Generous Social Assistance Transfers 67

FIGURE 2.11. Social Protection Spending Is Substantial but Does Not Meet Needs, Particularly in Low-Income Countries 69

FIGURE 2.12. Spending on Pensions Varies with Population Aging and Scheme Design 70

FIGURE 2.13. Low-Income and Fragile Countries Rely Heavily on International Grants 72

FIGURE 2.14. Social Protection Spending Increased Significantly during COVID-19 74

FIGURE 2.15. COVID-19 Spending Was Especially High for Social Assistance and Labor Market Programs 75

FIGURE 2.16. Countries with Better Pre-COVID-19 Coverage and Higher Spending Were Better Able to Expand Both 77

FIGURE 3.1. Existing Social Assistance Is Only Moderately Pro-poor 90

FIGURE 3.2. Social Assistance Could Be More Effective with Stronger Pro-poor Focus 91

FIGURE 3.3. Even with Increased Poverty Focus, More Funds Are Needed to Cover the Poor in Low-Income Countries 92

Maps 9

MAP I.1. Two Billion People in Low- and Middle-Income Countries Remain Uncovered or Inadequately Covered by Social Protection 24

Boxes 8

BOX I.1. Social Protection Promotes Equity, Resilience, and Opportunities 25

BOX 2.1. As Countries' Income Rises, More People Benefit from Social Protection Interventions 52

BOX 2.2. Women Are More Likely to Receive Social Protection Transfers Than Men 57

BOX 2.3. The Promise and Challenges of Voluntary Social Insurance Contributory Schemes 60

BOX 2.4. On Average, Women Receive Smaller Transfer Amounts Than Men 65

BOX 3.1. Evidence-Based Policy Making Requires Better Data 97

BOX 3.2. Economic Inclusion Programs Provide a New Policy Tool for Creating Opportunities and Building Resilience 99

Box Figures 8

FIGURE BI.1.1. Social Protection Promotes Equity, Resilience, and Opportunities 26

FIGURE B2.1.1. As Country Income Rises, More People Benefit from Social Protection Interventions 53

FIGURE B2.2.1. Women Are More Likely to Receive Social Protection Transfers Than Men 58

FIGURE B2.4.1. Social Protection Transfers Received by Men Are Substantially Higher Than Those Received by Women 66

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