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Title page 1

Contens 3

Executive Summary 4

SECTION 1. Introduction 14

1.1. Surging global demand for critical minerals 15

1.2. Canada's opportunity 18

1.3. Unlocking capital flows 21

SECTION 2. The challenge 25

2.1. Meeting domestic demand 26

2.2. Realizing export opportunities 29

SECTION 3. Market risks for investors 32

3.1. Financial risks for investors 34

3.2. Identifying policy priorities 41

3.3. Addressing price volatility 43

SECTION 4. Risk and opportunities for Indigenous communities 49

4.1. Risks and opportunities 52

4.2. Identifying policy priorities 59

4.3. Resources to engage on mining projects 66

4.4. Access to capital 70

SECTION 5. Environmental risks 78

5.1. Risks from mining 80

5.2. Identifying policy priorities 85

5.3. Managing risks from mine closures 87

5.4. Managing risks from tailings 91

SECTION 6. Reducing delays in project reviews 95

SECTION 7. Four recommendations to put Canada on the critical path 101

SUBSIDIARY SECTIONS 109

Glossary 110

Appendix A. Methods and analytical framework 112

Appendix B. Capital investment modelling methodology 118

Appendix C. Evaluation of policy options 120

Acknowledgments 136

References 139

Tables 43

Table 1. SUMMARY OF POLICY PROBLEMS CONCERNING FINANCIAL RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INVESTMENT IN CRITICAL MINERALS MINING IN CANADA 43

Table 2. SUMMARY OF POLICY PROBLEMS CONCERNING RISKS TO INDIGENOUS RIGHTS AND COMMUNITIES FROM CRITICAL MINERALS MINING IN CANADA 65

Table 3. SUMMARY OF POLICY PROBLEMS CONCERNING ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS FROM CRITICAL MINERALS MINING IN CANADA 87

Figures 19

Figure 1. CANADIAN RESERVES AND PRODUCTION VOLUMES OF FIVE CRITICAL MINERALS 19

Figure 2. CANADIAN PRODUCTION GAP TO MEETING DOMESTIC CRITICAL MINERAL DEMAND 28

Figure 3a. TOTAL PROJECTED DEMAND FROM CANADA'S TOP THREE EXPORT MARKETS 30

Figure 3b. TOTAL PROJECTED DEMAND FROM CANADA'S TOP THREE EXPORT MARKETS 31

Figure 4. PRICE VOLATILITY VARIES BY MINERAL 35

Figure 5. TWO-WAY CONTRACT FOR DIFFERENCE FOR COMMODITIES 46

Figure 6. FREE, PRIOR, AND INFORMED CONSENT REQUIRES TRUST BUILT UP OVER A PROJECT'S LIFECYCLE 56

Boxes 17

Box 1. RECYCLING IS CRUCIAL BUT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MEET INCREASING DEMAND FOR CRITICAL MINERALS-AT LEAST IN THE SHORT RUN 17

Box 2. CANADA HAS SEVERAL ADVANTAGES IN CRITICAL MINERALS 18

Box 3. THE CANADIAN POLICY LANDSCAPE FOR CRITICAL MINERALS 20

Box 4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 22

Box 5. ADDITIONAL RESEARCH THAT COMPLEMENTS THIS REPORT 24

Box 6. MINING IS AN INHERENTLY RISKY INDUSTRY 34

Box 7. THE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR NEW MINING PROJECTS IN CANADA 39

Box 8. FREE, PRIOR, AND INFORMED CONSENT IS KEY TO ENABLING PARTNERSHIPS WITH INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES-BUT IS NOT YET... 54

Box 9. ANOTHER SYSTEMIC POLICY PROBLEM: AMBIGUITY CONTINUES TO SURROUND INDIGENOUS LAND TITLE 61

Box 10. LOW CORPORATE LITERACY TOWARD INDIGENOUS CULTURES, VALUES, AND KNOWLEDGE IS NOT A PUBLIC POLICY PROBLEM 64

Box 11. ALBERTA'S SUCCESSFUL MODEL OF GOVERNMENT-BACKED INDIGENOUS LOAN GUARANTEES 73

Box 12. INDIGENOUS-LED MODEL FOR MAXIMIZING THE VALUE OF MINERAL REVENUES 76

Box 13. LAND-USE EMISSIONS FROM DISTURBANCE OF ECOLOGICALLY SENSITIVE AREAS 82

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