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Title page 1

Contents 14

Acknowledgements 3

Executive Summary 5

1.0. Introduction 18

1.1. Canada's Oil and Gas Production 18

1.2. Global Energy Transition 21

1.3. Stranded Assets and Economic Risk 22

1.4. Wider Economic Impacts of Stranded Assets 24

1.5. Aim and Structure of this Report 25

2.0. Methodology 27

2.1. The Carbon Tracker Stranded Assets Methodology 27

2.2. Interpretation and Limitations of the Stranded Assets Methodology 29

2.3. Applying the Methodology 30

2.3.1. Time Period 30

2.3.2. Discount Rate 30

2.3.3. The Rystad UCube 30

2.3.4. New Versus Existing Fields 31

2.3.5. Fracking Investments (Tight Oil and Gas) 32

2.3.6. Oil and Gas Markets 32

2.4. Demand Scenarios 35

2.5. Assessing Economic Impact 36

2.6. U.S. Tariffs on Imports from Canada 38

2.7. A Note on OPEC and the Oil Market 38

3.0. Stranded Assets and Equilibrium Price Assessment 40

3.1. Oil Production 40

3.2. Gas Production 42

3.3. Stranded Assets as a Proportion of Invested Capital 45

3.4. The LED Scenario 45

3.5. The Effect of U.S. Tariffs 46

4.0. Economic Impacts of Stranded Assets 48

4.1. Impacts on Illustrative Projects 48

4.2. Impact on Aggregate Project Investments 52

4.3. Impact on Companies and the Financial System 55

4.4. Impact on Government Revenues 56

4.5. The Effect of U.S. Tariffs 58

5.0. Economic Effects of Stopping New Field Development 59

5.1. Equilibrium Price Analysis 59

5.2. Economic Outcomes 60

5.3. Ending New Field Development in Canada 63

5.4. Diplomacy to Persuade Other Countries Not to Develop New Fields 65

5.5. The Effect of U.S. Tariffs 65

6.0. Conclusions 67

References 69

Appendix A. Oil and Gas's Role in the Economy 78

Tables 15

Table ES1. Upstream (extraction-related) oil and gas contributions to Canadian and provincial economies, 2023 5

Table 1. Upstream (extraction-related) oil and gas contribution to Canadian and provincial economies, 2023 18

Table 2. The proportion of projected base-case Canadian oil production in which new investment is uncompetitive (at a 10% discount rate) in different demand scenarios 42

Table 3. The volume of demand for North American gas (mcm/d) in different scenarios, 2025-2040 43

Table 4. The proportion of Canadian gas production in which new investment is uncompetitive (at a 10% discount rate) in different scenarios 45

Table 5. The proportion of projected base-case capital expenditure over 2025-2040 that is invested in uncompetitive projects in different demand scenarios 45

Table 6. The proportion of production in which new investment is uncompetitive at LED demand (2025-2040, 10% discount rate) 46

Table 7. NPV10 of Canadian oil and gas production at different demand levels (USD billion) 53

Table 8. NPV10 of the largest Canadian oil and gas companies' production at demand levels (USD billion) 55

Table 9. Annual average government revenues (combined federal and provincial, undiscounted) from Canadian oil and gas production (2025-2040) in different... 56

Table 10. Equilibrium oil prices by demand scenario and effect of policy interventions (USD/bbl) 60

Table 11. Equilibrium gas prices by demand scenario and effect of policy interventions (USD/kcf) 60

Table 12. Impact of policy interventions on NPV10 of Canadian oil and gas production at different demand levels (USD billion) 61

Table 13. Impact of policy interventions on average annual government revenues (combined federal and provincial, undiscounted) from Canadian oil and gas... 61

Figures 14

Figure ES1. NPV10 of Canadian oil and gas production at different demand levels 8

Figure ES2. Annual average government revenues (combined federal and provincial) from Canadian oil and gas production (2025-2040) at different demand levels, compared to 2022-2024 8

Figure ES3. Impact of policy interventions on NPV10 (left-hand panels) and undiscounted average annual government revenues 2025-2040 (right-hand panels)... 11

Figure ES4. Cost curve of undeveloped oil fields, Canada compared to other major global production (shaded areas show interquartile range; black lines show median) 12

Figure 1. Oil and gas production by province, 2000-2024 19

Figure 2. Oil and gas production by type, 2010-2024 19

Figure 3. Cost curve of undeveloped oil fields6: Canada compared to other major global production (shaded areas show interquartile range; black lines show median) 20

Figure 4. Global consumption of (a) oil and (b) gas in four scenarios 36

Figure 5. Cost curve of global oil production, showing equilibrium price for three IEA demand scenarios 41

Figure 6. Cost curve of Canadian oil production, showing equilibrium price for three IEA demand scenarios 42

Figure 7. Cost curve of North American gas production showing the equilibrium price for three IEA demand scenarios 43

Figure 8. The proportion of projected base-case Canadian gas production that is uncompetitive (at a 10% discount rate) in different demand scenarios 44

Figure 9. Illustrative effect of U.S. tariffs on a Canadian oil or gas field, within Figure 5 or 7 (showing global oil production or North American gas production) 47

Figure 10. Cumulative discounted free cash flow (10% discount rate), Syncrude Mildred Lake Extension West 49

Figure 11. Cumulative discounted free cash flow (10% discount rate), Christina Lake Phase 3 50

Figure 12. Cumulative discounted free cash flow (10% discount rate), Bay du Nord 51

Figure 13. Cumulative discounted free cash flow (10% discount rate), Aspen Phase 1 52

Figure 14. NPV10 of Canadian oil and gas production at different demand levels 53

Figure 15. NPV10 of all undeveloped Canadian oil and gas fields at a range of flat (real) oil price scenarios 54

Figure 16. Annual average government revenues (combined federal and provincial) from Canadian oil and gas production (2025-2040) at different demand levels 57

Figure 17. Impact of policy interventions on NPV10 (left-hand panels) and undiscounted average annual government revenues 2025-2040 (right-hand panels)... 62

Boxes 16

Box 1. Stranded assets and unextractable fossil fuels 24

Box 2. Key definitions 28

Box 3. Local effects on oil markets 33

Box 4. Would OPEC replace reduced Canadian production? 64

Appendix Tables 16

Table A1. Oil and gas contributions to Canadian and provincial economies, 2023 78

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