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Title page 1

Contents 3

Executive Summary 4

1. Introduction 5

2. Global Energy Demand and Supply 7

2.1. Natural gas 7

2.2. Liquified natural gas (LNG) 9

3. Canada's LNG Potential 13

4. Environmental Benefits of Using Natural Gas 17

5. Energy Security and Canada's Role 25

6. Barriers to Expanding Canada's Capacity to Export LNG 27

7. Conclusion 29

References 30

About the Authors 40

Acknowledgments 40

Publishing Information 41

About the Fraser Institute 42

Editorial Advisory Board 43

Tables 8

Table 1. Forecast demand (billions of cubic metres) for natural gas and share (%) of demand in various regions, 2023, 2030, 2035, 2050 8

Table 2. Forecast production (billions of cubic metres) for natural gas and share (%) of production in various regions, 2023, 2030, 2035, 2050 9

Table 3. LNG export projects proposed and under construction in Canada, 2025 16

Table 4. Energy consumption (exajoules) by type of fuel and share (%) of each type in China, India, Japan, and Taiwan, 2023 19

Table 5. Expected change in GHG emissions from the displacement with LNG of [1] the total electricity mix, [2] dispatchable electricity, and [3] marginal electricity,... 21

Figures 11

Figure 1. Forecast of LNG demand (bcm), 2030-2050 relative to 2022 11

Figure 2. Forecast of LNG imports (bcm), by region, 2022-2050 12

Figure 3. Canada's exports (bcm) of natural gas to the United States, 2000-2023 14

Figure 4. Global prices (U$/MMbtu) for natural gas and LNG, 2000-2024 15

Figure 5. Kilograms of CO₂ emitted per unit (million BTU) of fuel consumed, 2022 17

Figure 6. Coal consumption (exajoules), globally and by region, 1965-2023 18

Figure 7. Expected change in GHG emissions (MtCO₂e/year) from the displacement of [1] the total electricity mix, [2] dispatchable electricity, and [3] marginal... 21

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