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Title page 1

Contents 1

1. Introduction 2

2. A roller coaster ride in commodity markets 3

2.1. Fiscal revenues: oil and gas exporters 4

2.2. External balance: metals and minerals exporters 6

2.3. Employment and household incomes: agricultural exporters 8

3. The impact on textile manufacturers 9

4. Fiscal burdens and social impacts 13

4.1. Terms of trade, fiscal revenues and external balances 14

4.2. Foreign Direct Investment 16

4.3. Labour markets and the private sector 17

4.4. Food security 18

5. Conclusion 19

References 20

Figures 3

Figure 1a. Share of commodity dependent countries within their own income groups 3

Figure 1b. Export diversification, Theil Index by income group 3

Figure 2. Map of commodity dependence by dominant export product group (per country, percentage) 4

Figure 3. Evolution of commodity prices 4

Figure 4. Oil rent as a percentage of GDP for low-income and lower middle-income, fuel-dependent countries 5

Figure 5a. Global price of copper and zinc 7

Figure 5b. Global price of iron ore 7

Figure 6. Export value of copper and articles thereof from Zambia from 2015 to 2021 8

Figure 7. Percentage change in agricultural exports among selected LDCs 9

Figure 8. Global price of cotton 10

Figure 9. Top 10 exporting countries of fashion goods (share in global exports %) estimated twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU), 2019 11

Figure 10a. Bangladesh vs Vietnam: share of GDP linked to external demand 12

Figure 10b. Bangladesh vs Vietnam: share of GDP linked to external supply hubs 12

Figure 11. Sectoral dependencies: share of GDP linked to foreign final demand 13

Figure 12. General government gross debt by income group 15

Figure 13. Exports of goods, services and primary income; and total debt stock for low and middle-income countries 15

Figure 14. Bangladesh, external debt stocks, total 16

Figure 15. Vietnam, external debt stocks, total 16

Boxes 6

Box 1. The impact of oil prices on Nigeria 6

Box 2. Bangladesh and Vietnam offer two contrasting cases of how COVID-19 shocks travelled through global value chains 12

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