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정보검색

소장정보 검색

국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색
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결과 내 검색 동의어 포함

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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

Non-technical summary 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Data and experiment design 9

2.1. The Consumer Expectations Survey 9

2.2. Survey information on climate change and experimental design 10

3. Empirical results 13

3.1. Consumers climate change experiences, knowledge, attention, and concerns 13

3.2. How do regional temperatures and extreme weather events correlate with inflation expectations? 15

3.3. The impact of global warming on inflation expectations 16

3.4. The impact of global warming on different bundles of goods and the perceived channels 18

3.5. Heterogeneous treatment effects: climate knowledge and inflation expectations 18

3.6. Experimental integrity and robustness 19

4. The impact of global warming scenarios on other economic expectations 20

5. Willingness to pay for addressing temperature change and the environment as policy priority 22

6. Conclusion 24

References 27

Appendix A - Additional Figures 42

Appendix B - Additional Tables 56

Appendix C - Special purpose survey questions 71

Acknowledgements 81

Tables 36

Table 1. Heterogeneity in climate change knowledge, beliefs, attention and concerns 36

Table 2. Effects of temperature scenarios on consumers inflation expectations 37

Table 3. Heterogeneous effects of temperature scenarios on inflation expectations 38

Table 4. Other macroeconomic expectations 39

Table 5. Consumers' willingness to pay under different scenarios 40

Figures 31

Figure 1. Consumer expectations about average global temperature change until 2030 31

Figure 2. Consumers' climate change knowledge, attention, and concerns 32

Figure 3. Effects of rising temperatures on inflation expectations 33

Figure 4. Heterogeneity in effects on inflation expectations 34

Figure 5. Temperature scenarios and consumer expectations (June 2025) 35

Appendix Tables 56

Table B1. Sample summary statistics June 2025 56

Table B2. Climate change knowledge (detailed overview) 57

Table B3. Effects of consumers' extreme weather event experiences 58

Table B4. Effects of temperature scenarios on consumers expectations 59

Table B5. Reasons for increasing prices of food and goods and services 60

Table B6. Effects of temperature scenarios on consumers economic activity expectations 61

Table B7. Effects of temperature scenarios on additional consumer expectations (June 2025) 62

Table B8. Balance tests for scenario assignment (June 2025) 65

Table B9. Effects of temperature scenarios on consumers expectations (September 2024) 66

Appendix Figures 42

Figure A1. Global land and ocean average temperature anomalies 42

Figure A2. News coverage of different climate topics 43

Figure A3. Perceived policy priorities among consumers,climate change concerns and extreme weather event expectations 44

Figure A4. Consumers financially affected by extreme weather events in the past 5 years 45

Figure A5. Regional temperature and inflation expectations 46

Figure A6. Extreme weather events and consumers inflation expectations 47

Figure A7. Average marginal effects of a change in temperatures on inflation expectations 48

Figure A8. Expected effect on inflation, by components 49

Figure A9. Channels: Perceived drivers of price increases 50

Figure A10. Inflation and Growth expectations by temperature scenario 51

Figure A11. Consumers perceived responsibilities for climate change and maintaining price stability 52

Figure A12. Global temperature change scenario question (placebo item), regression estimates (June 2025) 53

Figure A13. Response time distribution for scenario questions in June 2025 54

Figure A14. Willingness to pay across countries 55

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