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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Background 9

2.1. Migration Patterns in Poland 9

2.2. Polish Political Landscape 12

3. Data and Descriptive Analysis 14

3.1. Data 14

3.2. Descriptive Analysis 16

4. Empirical Strategy 18

5. Estimation Results 22

5.1. Main Analysis 22

5.2. Robustness Checks 24

6. Mechanisms 27

6.1. Heterogeneity by County Characteristics 27

6.2. Other Effects of the Refugee Inflow 29

7. Conclusions 32

References 35

Supplementary Material 51

Tables 47

Table 1. Summary statistics for Polish counties 47

Table 2. IV estimation results, political groupings 48

Table 3. Robustness checks, alternative instruments 49

Table 4. IV estimation results on political groupings, heterogeneity by county 50

Figures 42

Figure 1. Ukrainians in Poland 42

Figure 2. Ukrainian migrants in Poland, by county 43

Figure 3. Vote share political parties during parliamentary elections, 2005-2023 44

Figure 4. Winning parties by county 2011-2023 45

Figure 5. Impact of Ukrainian refugee inflow on local socio-economic outcomes 46

Figure 6. Impact of Ukrainian refugee inflow on local public finances 46

Appendix Tables 60

Table A1. Timeline on main events and migration policies in Poland 60

Table A2. Political parties in Poland, 2015-2023 61

Table A3. Political parties in Poland, 2005-2011 63

Table A4. Polish political parties during 2019 elections, Manifesto Project 65

Table A5. Polish political parties during 2019 elections, Manifesto Project 65

Table A6. Balancing tests on local pre-war demographic and economic county characteristics - 2015-2019 trends 66

Table A7. IV estimation results, political parties 68

Table A8. IV estimation results, electoral statistics 69

Table A9. Reduced-form estimation results, political groupings 70

Table A10. Comparison of OLS and IV estimation results, all political groupings 71

Table A11. Robustness checks, alternative specifications 72

Table A12. Robustness checks, alternative inference 73

Table A13. First-stage placebo tests 73

Table A14. Second-stage placebo tests 74

Table A15. Timeline of key events in Polish history 79

Appendix Figures 52

Figure A1. Immigrants by nationality in Poland, with and without Ukrainians 52

Figure A2. Ukrainian and Belarusian migrants in Poland, by county 52

Figure A3. Timeline of recent elections in Poland 53

Figure A4. Change in Polish election results from 2011 to 2023 parliamentary elections 54

Figure A5. Relevance of the instrumental variable 55

Figure A6. Leave-on-out robustness check 55

Figure A7. Impact of Ukrainian refugee inflow on local socio-economic outcomes, detailed 56

Figure A8. Impact of Ukrainian refugee inflow on local expenditures, detailed 57

Figure A9. Polish political attitudes, by year and region 58

Figure A10. Historic borders of Poland 77

Figure A11. Resettlement of the Ukrainian and Belarusian population from eastern Polish territories 78

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