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Title page 1

Contents 1

Executive summary 1

1. Introduction 2

2. Germany's fiscal path, 2025-2031 3

3. How the German plan reconciles EU and national fiscal requirements 8

3.1. Quantifying the gap between the German and EU fiscal rule requirements 9

3.2. Closing the gap: optimistic macro assumptions vs. overperformance 10

4. Implications for Germany and Europe 13

4.1. Economic implications 13

4.2. Implications for the credibility of the fiscal framework 13

5. Conclusion and policy recommendations 18

References 20

Appendix 21

Tables 5

Table 1. Comparison of Germany's July 2025 MTFSP with the European Commission's June 2025 reference path 5

Table 2. Comparison of deflator growth projections 16

Figures 6

Figure 1. Structural primary balance paths conditional on Germany's proposed net expenditure targets, for varying nominal growth outcomes (% of GDP) 6

Figure 2. Debt-to-GDP paths conditional on Germany's proposed net expenditure targets, for varying nominal growth outcomes (% of GDP) 8

Figure 3. The role of economic assumptions and debt brake overperformance in closing the gap between the EU and German fiscal rule requirements in 2031 11

Figure 4. Evolution of the gap between the requirements of EU and German rules and decomposition of the latter, for alternative economic assumptions (with NEC) 12

Figure 5. Deviation of the plan from the reference trajectory (average annual gap between growth rates during the adjustment period) 14

Figure 6. Security and infrastructure-adjusted primary surplus required under EU rules under different economic assumptions (assumes NEC is granted) 21

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