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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 1

1. Introduction 2

2. Methodology: economic model and employed data 6

2.1. Formal description of quantitative trade model 6

2.1.1. Demand 6

2.1.2. Supply 7

2.1.3. International trade 9

2.1.4. Equilibrium 11

2.2. Calibration of the model 12

2.2.1. Data to calibrate the baseline 12

2.2.2. Calibration of parameters 15

3. Scenario description and calibration 17

3.1. Description of the four scenarios 17

3.2. Calibration of the four scenarios 18

3.2.1. Calibration of Trade Cost Shocks 18

3.2.2. Calibration of AI-deployment related productivity increases 22

3.3. Calibration of productivity shocks based on catch-up 27

3.4. Calibration AI technology catch-up 28

4. Simulation Results 29

4.1. AI and the production structure 29

4.2. Trade Impacts 30

4.3. Upstream impacts 32

4.4. GDP Impacts 32

4.5. Distribution Impacts 35

4.6. Robustness Tests 37

4.6.1. Varying the growth rate of AI services 38

4.6.2. Varying the substitution elasticities between labour and AI services 40

4.6.3. Low Capital Intensity of AI production 42

5. Conclusion 43

References 44

Appendix A. Further Details of Model Description 49

Tables 16

Table 1. Selected model parameters 16

Table 2. Sector-specific elasticities 16

Table 3. Trade Costs Analysis Results 21

Figures 22

Figure 1. Cumulative Trade Cost AVEs Averaged by the Importer over 2020-2040 22

Figure 2. Cumulative Trade Cost AVEs Averaged by the Sector over 2020-2040 22

Figure 3. Cumulative Productivity Growth by the Region and Labour-Skill Level over 2027-2040 27

Figure 4. Share of AI Capital in AI-Capital-Labour Composite in 2040, by Labour-Skill Level 29

Figure 5. Cumulative Change in Real Exports by 2040, Globally and by Income Level 30

Figure 6. Cumulative Change in Real Exports by 2040, Globally and by Income Level, with Decomposition of Channels 31

Figure 7. Cumulative Change in Global Real Exports by 2040 on Aggregated Sector Level 31

Figure 8. Cumulative Change in Output of Electricity and Electronic Equipment over 2025-2040 for Four Scenarios 32

Figure 9. GDP Impacts Across Regions with Decomposition of Channels 33

Figure 10. Cumulative Change in Global Real Factor Prices 36

Figure 11. Changes in the Global Prices of Consumption and Investment Goods 37

Figure 12. Robustness Checks: Share of AI Capital in AI-Capital-Labour Composite in 2040 with 38% Annual Growth in the AI Sector, by Labour-Skill Level 38

Figure 13. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real Exports with 38% Annual Growth in the AI Sector 39

Figure 14. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real GDP with 38% Annual Growth in the AI Sector 39

Figure 15. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real Factor Prices with 38% Annual Growth in the AI Sector 40

Figure 16. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real Factor Prices with different variations in σs across skill types 41

Figure 17. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real Factor Prices with Varying κ and σ 42

Figure 18. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real Factor Prices with Variation in Both κ and σ Together 43

Appendix Tables 49

Table A.1. Aggregated sectors, their full names, and corresponding ISIC Rev. 4 commodities 49

Table A.2. Aggregated regions, their descriptions, and corresponding economies 50

Appendix Figures 51

Figure A.1. Change in real GDP in Tech Divergence with Basic AI 51

Figure A.2. Cumulative Change in Global Rental-to-Wage Ratio in the Benchmark 51

Figure A.3. Cumulative Change in the Skill Premium over 2025-2040 52

Figure A.4. Changes in Employment, by Skill Level 52

Figure A.5. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real GDP with Varying σ 53

Figure A.6. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real GDP with Variation in Both κ and σ Together 53

Figure A.7. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real GDP with Varying κ and σ 54

Figure A.8. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real Exports with different Variation in σs across Skill Types 54

Figure A.9. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real Exports with Variation in Both κ and σ Together 55

Figure A.10. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real Exports with Varying κ and σ 55

Figure A.11. Robustness Checks: Changes in Export Volume with Lower Capital Intensity in the AI sector 56

Figure A.12. Robustness Checks: Changes in GDP with Lower Capital Intensity in the AI sector 56

Figure A.13. Robustness Checks: Changes in Real Factor Prices with Lower Capital Intensity in the AI sector 57

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