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22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
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국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색
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Title page 1

Contents 10

Acknowledgments 4

Executive Summary 5

Introduction 12

The Economic Fronts 17

Explaining Russia's initial resilience and economic adjustment 18

The Russian economy heading into stagflation since fall 2024 24

EU's pivot to geoeconomic power: European economies have accelerated the energy transition and aligned with a strategic autonomy agenda 32

Conclusion 40

Defense and National Security: Looking for a European Offset Strategy 43

General strategies 44

The prospect of Russia-Europe military confrontation 51

Resource strategy and defense industry 63

Indirect and hybrid strategies 70

Conclusion 73

Political Systems and Societal Resilience 76

Russian population and elites are conditioned for lengthy confrontation, Europe is not 78

In the long term, Europe's model is more attractive than Russia's 99

Conclusion 109

After Putin, is reconciliation with Europe possible? 109

Alliances and International Positioning, the Race for Global Strategic Support 113

How is the war redefining the alliances and partnerships of Russia and the EU? 113

Strengths and weaknesses of international positioning 130

Conclusion 140

Conclusion 144

List of acronyms 146

Bibliography 150

Books 150

Official reports, scientific articles, think-tank publications 155

Online resources 164

Figures 19

Figure 1. Commodity price index & energy transition metals (2003-2024) 19

Figure 2. Gazprom's gas production and exports to "Far Abroad" (2021-2024) 21

Figure 3. USD/Ruble exchange rate, yearly average (2014-2025) 22

Figure 4. Main economic indicators for the Russian economy, 2021 and 2024 24

Figure 5. Russian exports to China; Chinese exports to Russia (2021-2024) 29

Figure 6. Net foreign direct investment inflows into Russia, current $ (2011-2024) 30

Figure 7. Comparison of GDP per capita data for selected countries (1999-2023) 31

Figure 8. Comparison of the Russian and the European share of GDP in the world economy, current international $ (PPP), 2014 and 2024 33

Figure 9. EU's oil and gas import costs (2019-2024) 36

Figure 10. Europe/Russia ground forces' firepower ratio 55

Figure 11. European/Russian air assets 56

Figure 12. Missiles and guided munitions production in 2025 66

Figure 13. Level of European dependency 68

Figure 14. Europeans (EU27) in favor of providing aid to Ukraine or imposing economic sanctions on Russia 78

Figure 15. Permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation 80

Figure 16. Support of European public opinion for Ukraine 84

Figure 17. Russia's age structure 101

Figure 18. The EU's age structure 103

Figure 19. Comparison of education level and innovation, European Union and Russia, 2023 105

Figure 20. Global trade volumes (2014-2024) - EU, US, Russia, China 117

Figure 21. Russia's expanding trade with selected "Global South" countries (2021-2024) 119

Figure 22. Official visits of heads of state to Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine war 122

Figure 23. EU and Russian participation in international organizations 128

Figure 24. EU development aid 135

Figure 25. Foreign direct investments (FDI) flows 138

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