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Title page 1

Contents 7

Executive Summary 8

Introduction and Strategic Framing 10

Conceptual Framework 11

Strategic Logics 11

Empirical Foundations and Sectoral Concentrations 12

Geography and Strategy in Bloc-Based Deployment 13

Case Analysis I. The UAE in Fragile States 16

Case Analysis II. The UAE in the OECD 19

Case Analysis III. Saudi Energy Dominance and Global South Anchoring 23

Divergent Architectures of GCC Capital 26

Two Models of GCC Capital 29

Implications for Strategic Stability 30

Navigating Strategic Interdependence 31

Conclusion 34

Endnotes 35

Figures 12

Figure 1. UAE: Foreign Direct Investment by Sector, 2015-2025 12

Figure 2. UAE: Foreign Direct Investment by Sector and Geographic Block, 2015-2025 14

Figure 3. UAE: Foreign Direct Investment by Geographic Bloc, 2015-2025 15

Figure 4. UAE: Top Fragile State Recipients of FDI, 2015-2025 17

Figure 5. UAE: Foreign Direct Investment into Fragile States by Sector, 2015-2025 18

Figure 6. UAE: Foreign Direct Investment into OECD by Sector, 2015-2025 20

Figure 7. UAE: Top OECD Recipients of FDI, 2015-2025 20

Figure 8. UAE: State-Linked vs Private Investment: Fragile vs OECD, 2015-2025 22

Figure 9. Saudi Arabia: Total FDI by Sector, 2015-2025 24

Figure 10. Saudi Share of Outbound FDI by Bloc, 2015-2025 25

Figure 11. UAE vs. SAU: Top Sectoral Recipients, 2015-2025 27

Figure 12. UAE vs. SAU: Top Recipient States, 2015-2025 28