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Title page 1

Contents 3

Abstract 6

Acknowledgements 7

Authors 7

Executive summary 8

Policy context 8

Key conclusions 8

Main findings 8

Related and future Joint Research Centre work 11

Quick guide 11

1. Introduction 12

2. Scenarios and definitions 14

3. Global energy and emission projections 19

3.1. Global emission and temperature trajectories 20

3.2. Global energy supply and demand gaps 22

4. Global competitiveness of clean technologies 25

4.1. Summary 29

4.2. Power generation 31

4.2.1. Solar 31

4.2.2. Wind 31

4.2.3. Nuclear 33

4.2.4. Storage 34

4.3. Equipment 36

4.3.1. Electric cars 36

4.3.2. Electric trucks 37

4.3.3. Hydrogen trucks 38

4.3.4. Industrial heat pumps 39

4.3.5. Electrolysers 40

4.4. Fuels 42

4.4.1. Biofuels 42

4.4.2. Biogas 43

4.4.3. Liquid synfuels 44

4.4.4. E-methane 46

4.4.5. Green ammonia 47

4.5. Captured emissions 48

4.5.1. CCS 48

5. Macroeconomic impacts of mitigation in a globalised vs fragmented world 50

5.1. The tariff landscape in 2025 51

5.2. The connectivity of international energy trade 53

5.3. Globalisation vs. fragmentation in international trade 54

5.4. Minimal interaction between climate and trade policy at global GDP level 55

5.5. Climate and trade policy cause structural change 57

6. Conclusions 60

7. Annexes and Country Sheets 62

Country sheets 63

Argentina 63

Australia 68

Brazil 73

Canada 78

China 83

India 88

Indonesia 93

Japan 98

Mexico 103

Russia 108

Saudi Arabia 113

South Africa 118

South Korea 123

Türkiye 128

United Kingdom 133

United States 138

European Union 143

World 148

References 152

List of abbreviations and definitions 158

Annex 1. Description of POLES-JRC 166

Annex 2. Description of JRC-GEM-E3 173

Annex 3. Socio-economic assumptions and fossil fuel prices 179

Annex 4. Policies considered 182

Tables 165

Table 1. Summary of the scenarios and references and their combinations 55

Table 2. List of non-EU individual countries represented in POLES-JRC (for energy balances) 169

Table 3. Country mapping for the 12 regions in POLES-JRC (for energy balances) 170

Table 4. POLES-JRC model historical data and projections 171

Table 5. Sectors in the JRC-GEM-E3 model 174

Table 6. Regional aggregation of the JRC-GEM-E3 model 175

Table 7. World population and GDP 179

Table 8. GDP assumptions 180

Table 9. Reference policies 182

Table 10. Coal and nuclear phase-out policies (additional Reference policies) 189

Table 11. NDC and LTS policies, large emitters 189

Table 12. NDC policies, rest of the world 194

Figures 163

Figure ES1. Global GHG emissions and global mean temperature change, by scenario 9

Figure ES2. Percentage of the 1.5°C scenario global level achieved in the Reference scenario, in 2050 10

Figure 1. Global GHG emissions and global mean temperature change, by scenario 21

Figure 2. Global emissions, by sector, 1.5°C scenario 21

Figure 3. Global primary energy demand, by scenario (left) and change in global primary energy demand in the 1.5°C scenario, by timeframe (right) 22

Figure 4. Global power generation, by scenario (left) and change in global power generation in the 1.5°C scenario, by timeframe (right) 23

Figure 5. Global industry energy demand, by scenario (left) and change in global industry energy demand in the 1.5°C scenario, by timeframe (right) 23

Figure 6. Global transport energy demand, by scenario (left) and change in global transport energy demand in the 1.5°C scenario, by timeframe (right) 24

Figure 7. Global buildings energy demand, by scenario (left) and change in global buildings energy demand in the 1.5°C scenario, by timeframe (right) 24

Figure 8. Percentage of the 1.5°C scenario global level achieved in the Reference scenario, in 2050 30

Figure 9. Global installed capacity of solar power, by scenario 31

Figure 10. Global installed capacity of wind power, by scenario 32

Figure 11. Global installed capacity of nuclear power, by scenario 33

Figure 12. Global installed capacity of storage in the power sector, by scenario 35

Figure 13. Global electric passenger car fleet, by scenario 36

Figure 14. Global electric truck fleet, by scenario 37

Figure 15. Global H₂ truck fleet, by scenario 38

Figure 16. Global industrial heat pump installations, by scenario 39

Figure 17. Global installed capacity of electrolysers, by scenario 41

Figure 18. Global production of liquid biofuels, by scenario 42

Figure 19. Global production of biogas, by scenario 43

Figure 20. Global production of liquid synfuels, by scenario 44

Figure 21. Global production of e-methane, by scenario 46

Figure 22. Global production of green ammonia for fuel, by scenario 47

Figure 23. Global capture of CO₂, by scenario 48

Figure 24. Selected trade flows in 2017 - energy trade - billion USD 2017 53

Figure 25. Global GDP (excluding effects of climate change impacts) and global GHG emissions (including LULUCF), by scenario 55

Figure 26. Total global trade by sector in different scenarios, relative to base year 2017 (index 2017 = 100) 58

Figure 27. Share of fossil fuels in global trade across years and scenarios (based on trade in monetary terms) 59

Figure 28. POLES-JRC model general scheme 166

Figure 29. POLES-JRC model regions (for energy balances) 169

Figure 30. Schematic overview of the JRC-GEM-E3 model 173

Figure 31. International fossil fuel prices in the Reference scenario 181

Boxes 162

Box 1. Enhancements and updates of the POLES-JRC model, and differences compared to GECO 2024 17

Box 2. Evidence on the importance of trade for green technology supply chains 52

Box 3. Modelling the fragmentation of international trade 54

Box 4. Exempting fossil fuels from trade restrictions 57

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