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Title page 1

Contents 3

Acknowledgments 5

Executive Summary 7

CHAPTER 1. Introduction: The Deterrence by Resilience Framework 13

CHAPTER 2. Mapping the Bioconvergence Threat 17

A. The Promise and Peril of Bioconvergence 17

B. Bioconvergence Risk 21

C. Trends in Biological AI Systems 24

D. Evaluating Risks from Biological AI Systems 25

E. Analogizing Bioconvergence Risks 34

CHAPTER 3. Prevention 37

A. Bio Risks of General Purpose AI Models: Current State and Critical Gaps 37

Section A Findings and Recommendations 53

B. Biological Data Governance 56

Section B Findings and Recommendations 59

C. Governance of Biological AI Tools 60

Section C Findings and Recommendations 63

D. Nucleic Acid Synthesis Screening and Laboratory Regulation 64

Section D Findings and Recommendations 68

CHAPTER 4. Detection 70

A. Diagnosing Failures in the Existing Biological Monitoring Systems: The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Stress Test 71

B. Building Bio-Monitoring Systems for Continuous Readiness 75

C. Building the System: Infrastructure and Integration 77

D. Financing and Governing a Biological Monitoring System 81

E. Conclusion 83

Findings and Recommendations 83

CHAPTER 5. Attribution 90

A. Attribution as Deterrence 90

B. Current Challenges for Attribution 91

C. Capability Inventory: Where the United States Stands Today 95

D. The US Policy Context 97

E. Conclusion 98

Findings and Recommendations 98

CHAPTER 6. Readiness and Response 101

A. Readiness 101

Section A Findings and Recommendations 111

B. Response 113

Section B Findings and Recommendations 130

CHAPTER 7. Resilience 133

A. The Interdependent Relationship Between Response and Resilience 133

B. Building Bioresilience Through AI, Functional Data, and Response Infrastructure 135

C. Industrial Resilience: Strengthening the Private Sector and Supply Chain 140

D. Expanding Global Resilience 147

Findings and Recommendations 152

CONCLUSION: A Call to Action 157

APPENDIX 1. Consolidated Findings and Recommendations 161

APPENDIX 2. Legislative Proposals on Biosecurity and AI 182

APPENDIX 3. Perspective on Liability for Bio-risks of AI Models 197

APPENDIX 4. Further Discussion of the Defense Production Act 200

APPENDIX 5. Gaps for NSBRR and NIBR Implementation 205

Tables 58

Table 3.1. Major Biological Datasets 58

Table 4.1. Summarizes the principal components of the current biological monitoring architecture in early 2020 72

Figures 138

Figure 1. Bioresilience Infrastructure Pyramid 138

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